The Indian stock market is currently navigating a complex landscape, influenced by a confluence of global and domestic factors. Here's a breakdown of ten key elements that have shaped the market's trajectory overnight:

1. GIFT Nifty Signals Positive Start: GIFT Nifty, formerly known as SGX Nifty, indicates a potential gap-up opening for the Indian stock market indices. As of June 24, 2025, GIFT Nifty was trading around 25,175, a premium of nearly 181 points from the Nifty futures' previous close. This suggests a bullish sentiment prevailing in early trading. GIFT Nifty serves as a valuable tool for tracking and forecasting movements in the Nifty, offering investors insights into potential market trends, operating for 21 hours a day.

2. Ceasefire Announcement Impacts Market Sentiment: News of a ceasefire agreement between Israel and Iran, announced by US President Donald Trump, has instilled optimism in the market. This development has eased concerns about escalating geopolitical tensions, fostering a more risk-on environment.

3. Asian Markets Rally: Following the ceasefire announcement, Asian markets have demonstrated a strong rally. Japan's Nikkei 225 and Topix index, South Korea's Kospi and Kosdaq all experienced significant gains. This positive momentum in Asian markets is likely to spill over into the Indian stock market, further supporting a positive opening.

4. US Market Cues: The US stock market ended higher on Monday, fueled by hopes of an early interest rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, S&P 500, all recorded substantial gains. These positive cues from Wall Street are expected to influence Indian market sentiment positively.

5. Israel-Iran Conflict and Crude Oil Prices: Escalating tensions between Israel and Iran have been a major concern for the Indian stock market. The US airstrikes on Iranian nuclear facilities intensified the conflict, leading to a surge in crude oil prices, reaching their highest levels since January. Concerns over supply disruptions, particularly through the Strait of Hormuz, have further fueled these price increases. India imports a significant portion of its crude oil needs, making it vulnerable to fluctuations in global oil prices.

6. Impact on Specific Sectors: The rise in crude oil prices has had a mixed impact on different sectors. Oil marketing companies, aviation, paints, and adhesives have experienced a decline in their stock prices due to increased input costs. Conversely, upstream oil companies like ONGC and Oil India are expected to benefit from higher crude prices, potentially boosting their earnings per share (EPS).

7. FII Activity: Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) have been net sellers of Indian equities in June, after remaining net buyers in April and May. However, on Friday, FIIs bought shares worth Rs 7,940.70 crore while the domestic institutional investors (DIIs) were net sellers at Rs 3,049.88 crore. Monitoring FII activity remains crucial, as their investment decisions can significantly impact market movement.

8. Rupee vs. Dollar: The Indian rupee strengthened modestly, tracking inflows into domestic equities. The rupee's strength came despite volatile oil prices and geopolitical tensions, supported by signals from US President Donald Trump to avoid any precipitate action on Iran.

9. Technical Outlook: Technically, Nifty has approached the upper band of its consolidation range. A sustained move above the 25,200 level could confirm a breakout, potentially opening the door for a rally toward the 25,600–25,800 zone. On the downside, 24,700 and 24,400 will serve as immediate and crucial support levels.

10. Global Economic Factors: Global economic factors, including US policy actions and inflation risks, continue to pose a threat to the Indian equity market. The US Federal Reserve's policy decisions and comments from Fed Chair Jerome Powell regarding potential inflation increases have added to investor uncertainty.

In conclusion, the Indian stock market is influenced by a complex interplay of domestic and global factors. While the ceasefire announcement and positive global cues point towards a potentially positive opening, investors should remain cautious and closely monitor geopolitical developments, crude oil prices, and FII activity.