Bitcoin has staged a notable recovery, rebounding to $105,000 amidst a confluence of factors, including easing geopolitical tensions and strong U.S. investor demand as reflected in Coinbase premium. The cryptocurrency's resilience is being closely watched by analysts who see both bullish and bearish signals in the current market dynamics.
After briefly dipping below $100,000, hitting a low of around $98,974, Bitcoin quickly regained its footing. This initial drop was attributed to heightened tensions between the U.S. and Iran, triggering a risk-off sentiment among investors. However, following President Trump's announcement of a "total ceasefire," Bitcoin swiftly bounced back, underscoring its growing perception as a mature store of value asset capable of weathering global uncertainties. As of today, Bitcoin is trading at approximately $105,138, with a market capitalization of $2.09 trillion. The 24-hour trading volume stands at $52.63 billion, reflecting renewed market activity and investor confidence.
A key indicator of this resurgence is the Coinbase Premium Index, which has hit its second-highest level in 2025. This index measures the price difference between Bitcoin on Coinbase (BTC/USD pair) and Binance (BTC/USDT pair), serving as a gauge of U.S. investor demand. A consistently positive premium suggests strong buying pressure from U.S. investors, potentially driven by institutional interest through spot Bitcoin ETFs. This sustained premium indicates that American investors are willing to pay a higher price for Bitcoin on Coinbase compared to other exchanges, signaling robust demand.
In contrast, Binance's retail inflow percentage has surged to a two-year high, coinciding with the recent Bitcoin price decline. On-chain metrics reveal a sharp increase in exchange inflows, particularly in the 0 to 1 BTC range. This suggests that retail investors, who often have lower entry barriers on Binance, may be engaging in active trading or profit-taking behavior. Analyst Maartunn noted that these inflows signal an intention to trade rather than hold, indicating a proactive approach from retail participants who may have anticipated the recent market movements.
Technical analysis of Bitcoin's price charts reveals a mixed outlook. The BTCUSDT daily chart indicates that Bitcoin lost momentum after failing to sustain levels above $110,000. A double-top pattern, a classic bearish signal, is evident, suggesting a potential trend reversal. The Relative Strength Index (RSI) is currently neutral but tilting lower, indicating that buyers are losing strength and there is room for further downside if selling pressure increases. However, the 4-hour chart shows a pronounced V-shaped recovery, reinforcing a short-term bullish narrative. Bitcoin has surged upwards after bottoming out at $98,240, supported by rising green volume bars and consolidation just below the $106,000 resistance. A breakout above $106,500, with volume confirmation, could pave the way for a move toward $108,000 or higher.
On-chain data suggests a healthy consolidation pattern, with long-term holders accumulating Bitcoin while short-term holders are selling in panic. This behavior is indicative of a market that is consolidating rather than collapsing. CryptoQuant analysts have observed that long-term Bitcoin holders are staying put, demonstrating continued belief in the market's potential. An analysis of the Coin Days Destroyed (CDD) indicator shows that the market is not overheating, suggesting that this period of quiet accumulation could set the stage for another price surge, similar to past bull markets. Furthermore, whale activity, the behavior of large investors, shows no signs of panic selling, differentiating the current market from the events leading up to the 2021 market top.
Corporate adoption of Bitcoin continues to grow, exemplified by Trump Media's $2.3 billion Bitcoin treasury strategy. This move highlights the increasing acceptance of Bitcoin as a legitimate asset and store of value among institutional investors. The company's decision to continue buying Bitcoin despite announcing a $400 million stock buyback program underscores its confidence in the cryptocurrency's long-term potential.
