India faces a complex strategic dilemma arising from the ever-strengthening alliance between China and Pakistan. This alliance, characterized by military, economic, and diplomatic cooperation, poses significant challenges to India's regional influence and national security. The evolving dynamics of this partnership, particularly in the context of recent geopolitical developments, necessitate a recalibration of India's strategic approach.
The China-Pakistan alliance is not a new phenomenon but has deepened over the decades, driven by shared strategic interests and mutual concerns regarding India's rise. China's support for Pakistan, including military assistance and technology transfers, has bolstered Pakistan's capabilities, allowing it to challenge India's military might. The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), a flagship project of China's Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), further solidifies this alliance, enhancing economic and strategic connectivity between the two countries. India views CPEC as a violation of its sovereignty, as it passes through the contested territory of Gilgit-Baltistan, and a threat to its regional influence.
Recent events, such as Operation Sindoor, have highlighted the evolving nature of the China-Pakistan military cooperation. The use of Chinese-origin weapons and technology by Pakistan during its response to the operation underscores the increasing convergence in operational capabilities between the two militaries. Moreover, China's diplomatic support for Pakistan, often shielding it from international pressure, further emboldens Pakistan's actions. At the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) meet, China and Pakistan attempted to divert attention from terrorism, particularly the Pahalgam attack, while raising concerns about Balochistan, showcasing their aligned interests and coordinated efforts.
The implications of this alliance for India's security are multifaceted. The possibility of a two-front conflict, with coordinated action along the northern and western borders, presents a formidable challenge. India's defense spending, though significant, needs to be commensurate with its exposure to trade with China and the potential threats from the alliance. The increasing Chinese presence in the Pakistani part of Jammu and Kashmir, including Gilgit-Baltistan, is a major concern for New Delhi. Furthermore, the ideological and strategic alignment between China and Pakistan, driven by their shared concerns about India's rise, contributes to regional instability.
In response to these challenges, India has adopted a multi-pronged approach. Firstly, it is strengthening its defense capabilities through investments in advanced military technology and enhanced cooperation with like-minded countries. A closer alignment with the United States, further along the policy path that India is already pursuing, represents the best way to meet the challenge of China's rise, because the United States is the only power that is stronger than China. Secondly, India is actively promoting alternative connectivity projects, such as the International North-South Transport Corridor (INSTC) and the Chabahar port development in Iran, to counter the influence of CPEC. Thirdly, India is focusing on bolstering its economy and attracting foreign investment to become a more attractive alternative to China for Pakistan. Fourthly, India is deepening defense partnerships with countries like the US, Japan, Australia, and France.
However, India's strategic response also faces certain dilemmas. While strengthening ties with the US and other Western powers can provide a counterbalance to China, it may also alienate Russia, a long-standing strategic partner. Furthermore, India's economic dependence on China, particularly in terms of trade, limits its ability to take strong measures against Chinese interests. Managing these relationships requires a delicate balancing act, ensuring that India's strategic autonomy is not compromised.
Looking ahead, India needs to adopt a comprehensive and long-term strategy to address the challenges posed by the China-Pakistan alliance. This includes strengthening its military capabilities, promoting regional connectivity, fostering economic growth, and deepening strategic partnerships. India must also focus on managing its relationships with both China and Pakistan, avoiding a self-fulfilling prophecy of escalating tensions. By adopting a proactive and nuanced approach, India can effectively navigate this strategic dilemma and safeguard its interests in the evolving geopolitical landscape.
