XRP's price dynamics are currently under close observation, with a key metric hinting at potential future rallies. In May 2025, XRP's 90-day moving average of whale flows turned positive, marking a significant shift from the negative flows seen between January and April. This change suggests renewed interest from large investors and a possible breakout setup for the fourth quarter.

Historically, such a shift has been a strong indicator of a substantial price increase. The last time this metric turned green, XRP experienced a month-long rally of 420%. This historical precedent has fueled optimism among traders and analysts, who are keenly watching XRP's performance.

Currently, XRP is trading around $2.10. While it has shown resilience in maintaining levels above $2.00 since December 2024, its Q2 trading volumes on Binance have dropped to levels not seen since August 2020, reflecting a decline in market participation. Despite this, wallets holding over 1 million XRP have reached an all-time high, and mid-tier wallet growth has risen by 6.2%, indicating strong conviction among long-term holders.

Several analysts have weighed in on XRP's potential. One analyst, EGRAG Crypto, pointed to a pattern observed during the 2020/2021 market run, which led to a rally to $1.96 in mid-2021, suggesting a possible uptick to $17.5. This projection is based on XRP's interaction with the 21-week exponential moving average (EMA), which has historically acted as either resistance or support.

However, other analysts suggest a more cautious outlook. Some predict that XRP could slide below $2.00. Technical analysis shows that XRP's price is falling toward support at around $2.09, following a rejection from its weekly top at approximately $2.22. A sell signal from the Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator further suggests that sellers have the upper hand.

Adding to the uncertainty, XRP's most profitable investors are realizing over $68 million in profits daily, reminiscent of the run-up to the 2017 market top. This profit-taking behavior, combined with the fact that over 70% of XRP's realized market cap has formed since late 2024, makes the market top-heavy and vulnerable to sharp sell-offs.

Despite these mixed signals, the integration of XRP Ledger with Wormhole to expand multi-chain interoperability could drive adoption of stablecoins and tokenized assets. Furthermore, the launch of micro futures for XRP by Robinhood Markets provides traders with opportunities to speculate or hedge on price changes with lower capital.

Overall, the sentiment surrounding XRP remains cautiously optimistic. While some technical indicators suggest a potential decline in the short term, historical data and whale activity point to a possible breakout in the coming months. The convergence of these factors makes XRP a cryptocurrency to watch closely in the near future.