The Indian equity markets are exhibiting a "mature uptrend," although there are signs of consolidation near all-time highs. According to Rahul Ghose, Founder and CEO of Octanom Tech and Hedged.in, the Nifty 50 has successfully maintained its position above key breakout levels. However, the market has experienced volatility due to global macroeconomic events, particularly fluctuations in crude oil prices and ongoing geopolitical tensions. Despite this, the broader market demonstrates good health, with mid-cap and small-cap stocks outperforming, indicating strong participation across the board.
Ghose anticipates that the Nifty 50 is eyeing the 26,000 mark. He notes that the recent easing of tensions between Iran and Israel has contributed to a revival in global risk appetite, further supporting the market rally. Consequently, benchmark indices concluded the week on a strong note, with the Nifty closing at 25,637.80 and the Sensex at 84,058.90, both nearing their respective weekly highs.
From a technical standpoint, the Nifty 50 maintains a bullish structure across all major time frames. However, Ghose suggests that a short-term pullback or correction is possible, considering that the index is approaching resistance areas on daily and weekly charts. He pinpoints a range between 24,164 and 25,150 as key levels for the Nifty, advising traders to adopt range-bound strategies and implement tight stop losses. A decisive move below 23,900 could trigger further downside, while a breakout above 25,100 could lead to additional upside.
Ghose also highlights specific stocks that are showing promise. He mentions Nestle India, ICICI Bank, and Ultratech Cement as potential picks for traders. In February 2025, Ghose suggested that FMCG, Larsen & Toubro and Reliance Industries were good stocks to accumulate. He was also bullish on Chambal Fertilisers with a near-term target of 10% higher from current levels. Stocks like KPIT Technologies and Indian Hotels were also cited as good for the near term.
While the overall market sentiment is positive, Ghose advises caution due to potential volatility stemming from global factors. He points out that crude oil prices and geopolitical tensions remain significant variables. While crude oil has pulled back from recent highs, offering a mildly positive signal for India, ongoing US-Iran-Israel friction keeps headline risk elevated.
Ghose's analysis suggests that the Indian stock market is in a phase of mature uptrend, with the Nifty 50 aiming for 26,000. However, he also acknowledges the possibility of short-term corrections and emphasizes the importance of monitoring global cues and key technical levels. He recommends a selective approach to stock picking, highlighting opportunities in specific sectors and individual stocks.
