The monsoon has arrived in Delhi and covered the entire country, marking the fastest coverage since 2020. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) reported that the monsoon covered all of India by June 29, 2025, nine days ahead of the usual date of July 8. This rapid advance is attributed to strong low-pressure systems over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal.

Early Onset and Progression

The southwest monsoon made its onset over Kerala on May 24, 2025, eight days earlier than the normal date of June 1. This was the earliest onset in Kerala since 2009. The monsoon quickly progressed through southern and western India, reaching Mumbai by May 26, the city's earliest arrival in 25 years. By May 29, it had covered areas up to central Maharashtra and the entire northeast.

However, the monsoon's progress stalled for nearly three weeks, from May 29 to June 16. Despite this stagnation, it regained momentum and rapidly covered central India and most northern states. The delayed arrival in Delhi was due to anti-cyclonic winds hindering the flow of monsoon currents.

Factors Contributing to Early Arrival

Several factors contributed to the early monsoon onset and rapid coverage:

• Strong cross-equatorial winds: These winds played a significant role in attracting rain clouds towards India.
• Warmer oceans: Above-normal sea surface temperatures in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal led to more evaporation, increasing moisture in the air and strengthening rising air currents.
• Favorable Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) phase: The MJO, a moving pulse of cloud and rainfall, was aligned over the Indian Ocean, boosting convection and triggering rainfall.
• Weakening El Niño and developing La Niña conditions: Climate models indicated a weakening El Niño and the start of La Niña, which is historically associated with stronger and earlier monsoons in India.
• Positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD): A positive IOD in 2025 brought additional moisture to India, enhancing convection and strengthening monsoon winds.

Impact on Agriculture and Economy

The early monsoon arrival is crucial for India's economy and agriculture. The monsoon provides about 70% of India's annual rainfall, essential for cultivating major crops such as rice, wheat, sugarcane, soybeans, and cotton. Nearly half of India's farmland depends on the annual rains.

• Boost to Kharif crops: The early monsoon facilitates timely sowing of Kharif crops like rice, maize, millets, and pulses, ensuring higher productivity.
• Improved water resources: Early rainfall recharges groundwater, fills reservoirs, and improves irrigation, benefiting both agriculture and hydropower generation.
• Positive economic impact: Good rainfall can stabilize food prices and allow the Reserve Bank of India to lower interest rates. It also strengthens rural demand, which accounts for a significant portion of India's total consumption.

Regional Variations and Challenges

While the overall forecast is promising, there are regional variations in rainfall distribution. Central India and the southern Peninsular region are expected to receive above-normal rainfall, while some parts of Northwest and Northeast India may experience below-normal rainfall.

The early monsoon also presents potential challenges:

• Flooding: Intense rainfall in a short period can lead to floods and flood-like situations, as experienced in several western and eastern states in June 2025. An orange alert has been issued for several districts in Himachal Pradesh due to heavy rainfall, with warnings of potential disruptions.
• Uneven distribution: Rainfall could be uneven, delayed in some areas, or intense in short bursts, affecting crop yields.
• Disaster preparedness: The early onset requires enhanced disaster management, government decisions, and climate change plans.

Despite these challenges, the early arrival of the monsoon is generally seen as a positive sign for India's agriculture sector and overall economy. The IMD will continue to monitor monsoon trends and issue updates to aid planning in agriculture, water resource management, and disaster preparedness.