As the Dalai Lama approaches his 90th birthday on July 6th, all eyes are on both India and China, anticipating potential announcements regarding his succession and the future of Tibetan Buddhism. Celebrations are expected to take place worldwide, but the occasion is fraught with political sensitivity, particularly concerning the ongoing tensions between India and China.
The Dalai Lama's presence in India since fleeing Tibet in 1959 has long been a contentious issue in Sino-Indian relations. China views him as a separatist undermining their national interests, while India has provided refuge and treated him as an honored guest and respected religious leader. As the Dalai Lama approaches 90, the question of his successor has become increasingly urgent, potentially reshaping the political and spiritual landscape of Tibet and further straining India-China relations.
A key point of contention lies in the selection process of the next Dalai Lama. Tibetan Buddhism holds that the Dalai Lama is a "tulku," someone who consciously chooses rebirth to continue their spiritual work. The selection process traditionally involves high lamas and the Tibetan government. However, China asserts its authority over the reincarnation process, insisting that any successor must be born within China and approved by the Chinese government. This claim is based on a historical ordinance from 1793, a claim disputed by Tibetans who reject China's jurisdiction in religious matters.
The Dalai Lama himself has addressed the issue of his succession, suggesting the possibility of a successor born outside Tibet, in the "free world," to ensure the continuation of his mission of universal compassion and spiritual leadership, explicitly stating that the next Dalai Lama will be born outside of China to ensure freedom from Chinese control. He has even alluded to the possibility that the Dalai Lama lineage might end with him. This stance has angered Beijing, which views it as a direct challenge to its authority and control over Tibet. China's Foreign Ministry has stated that the Dalai Lama has no right to represent the Tibetan people and that the reincarnation of his successor will be managed by the Chinese government.
The situation is further complicated by China's past actions regarding the Panchen Lama, the second-highest spiritual leader in Tibetan Buddhism. In 1995, after the Dalai Lama recognized Gedhun Choekyi Nyima as the 11th Panchen Lama, the Chinese government abducted him and appointed its own Panchen Lama, Gyaincain Norbu, who is seen by many Tibetans as illegitimate. This incident fuels fears that China will employ a similar strategy with the next Dalai Lama, potentially leading to two competing Dalai Lamas: one recognized by Tibetans and the international community, and another appointed by Beijing.
For India, the Dalai Lama's succession presents a complex dilemma. While New Delhi has traditionally avoided direct involvement in the succession debate to avoid further antagonizing China, India's hosting of the Tibetan leadership and potentially a non-China-approved successor is bound to provoke Beijing. Some strategists in India view the "Tibet card" as leverage in dealing with an increasingly assertive China. However, openly supporting a Dalai Lama not recognized by China could further escalate tensions and potentially destabilize the already fragile border region. India must also consider the potential for China to create divisions within the Tibetan community in exile and the security implications for its Himalayan region.
The international community also has a significant role to play. The Dalai Lama has significant influence in the United States, the European Union, and other countries. International pressure on China to respect religious freedom and allow for a genuine selection process, free from political interference, could be crucial in ensuring the future of Tibetan Buddhism and stability in the region. The selection of the next Dalai Lama could reshape regional and global politics.
