A potential trade agreement between India and the United States is raising concerns about India's food security, with the Global Trade Research Initiative (GTRI) cautioning against lowering import duties on American farm goods. As the two nations negotiate, pressure mounts to reduce tariffs on key US agricultural exports, including rice, dairy, poultry, corn, almonds, apples, and genetically modified soy.

The GTRI warns that a permanent reduction of agricultural tariffs in an India-US Free Trade Agreement (FTA) would be strategically unsound and irreversible. Eliminating tariffs could lead to subsidized US grains overwhelming Indian markets, especially during global price downturns. Historical data shows that global grain prices plummeted between 2014 and 2016, devastating farmers in Africa. The GTRI emphasizes that India must retain the policy space to manage food stocks, support rural incomes, and respond to global shocks.

The US agricultural exports receive substantial subsidies, creating an uneven playing field for Indian farmers. In some years, subsidies have exceeded 50% of production costs for certain products. Allowing duty-free entry for these subsidized goods could undercut Indian producers and distort markets. India uses tariffs, ranging from 0% to 150%, to support its farm sector, which employs over 700 million people.

India's dairy import protocols, which stipulate that animals cannot be fed with meat, blood, or internal organs of other animals, effectively prevent US dairy products from entering the market. The US views these regulations as excessive. India also requires non-GM and GM-free certificates for 24 products, even for non-commercially modified crops, to ensure product traceability and preserve consumer trust.

Reducing tariffs on US agricultural imports could jeopardize India's food security by exposing small-scale farmers to subsidized imports and market fluctuations. India needs to maintain tariff flexibility to safeguard over 700 million rural livelihoods and avoid repeating past trade agreement mistakes.

While the US sees India's agricultural market as a significant opportunity and pushes for tariff concessions and market access for dairy, corn, soybeans, apples, and nuts, India has been hesitant, emphasizing food security and the welfare of its small farmers. Concessions on agricultural items have not been part of India's trade deals so far. The priority for India is protecting its interests.

The US seeks to export subsidized products such as apples, almonds, corn, dairy, poultry, and ethanol to India. If allowed duty-free, these goods could undercut Indian producers and distort markets.

The Indian government is твердо standing firm on agricultural concessions, prioritizing the interests of its farmers. While the US seeks deals before reciprocal tariffs take effect, India is wary of one-sided agreements. The Indian industry has suggested compromise, but the government emphasizes a balanced outcome, with a limited initial deal and further tranches expected.

GTRI suggests that any trade deal with the US must not be politically driven or one-sided and must protect Indian farmers, the digital ecosystem, and sovereign regulatory space. A limited trade pact may see India cutting tariffs on a wide range of US industrial goods, including automobiles, while offering selective market access via tariff reductions and tariff-rate quotas (TRQs) on products such as ethanol, almonds, walnuts, apples, raisins, avocados, olive oil, spirits, and wine. These measures must be weighed against the interests of Indian farmers.

снижению пошлин на импорт американской сельскохозяйственной продукции может подорвать продовольственную безопасность Индии, повлияв на миллионы фермеров и средства к существованию. Особое внимание уделяется опасениям по поводу субсидируемой продукции США и генетически модифицированных продуктов.

India may offer limited market access through tariff reductions and tariff-rate quotas (TRQs) on select US products such as ethanol, almonds, walnuts, apples, raisins, avocados, olive oil, spirits, and wine, but no tariff cuts are expected for dairy products or key food grains like rice and wheat, where farm livelihoods are at stake. These categories are politically and economically sensitive, affecting over 700 million people in India's rural economy.