Here's a look at some of the key factors influencing the Indian stock market today:

1. Gift Nifty Signals Positive Start

The Gift Nifty was trading near 25,690, around 47 points higher than the previous Nifty futures close, hinting at a positive start for Indian markets. Gift Nifty, formerly known as SGX Nifty, serves as an indicator of the potential movements in the Nifty 50 index.

2. Global Market Cues: Mixed Bag

Asian markets opened mostly lower on Wednesday, July 2, 2025, as investors considered recent remarks from US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell. Powell mentioned that the Fed might have already cut interest rates if it were not for President Trump's tariff policies.

• Japan's Nikkei 225 fell 1.32%, and the Topix declined 0.64%.
• South Korea's Kospi dropped 0.42%, while the Kosdaq was flat.
• Hong Kong's Hang Seng index futures indicated a higher opening.
• US stock futures were largely steady during early Asian trading after Wall Street began the second half of the year with waning enthusiasm for tech stocks.
• Overnight, the US markets closed mixed. The S&P 500 edged down 0.11% to finish at 6,198.01, and the Nasdaq Composite lost 0.82%, settling at 20,202.89.

3. India-US Trade Negotiations

India and the US are engaged in intense trade negotiations in Washington, aiming to finalize an interim trade agreement before the July 9th deadline, when reciprocal tariffs could be reinstated. The negotiations entered the sixth day on Tuesday. India seeks improved market access for its workforce-intensive products, while the US desires duty reductions in agriculture and dairy.

• If the proposed trade talks fail, the 26% tariffs will come into force again.
• Both nations are striving to finalise discussions for the initial phase of the bilateral trade agreement (BTA) by autumn (September-October) this year. The agreement targets increasing two-way trade to $500 billion by 2030, up from the present $191 billion.
• India is seeking a full exemption from the supplementary 26% duty.

4. US "One Big, Beautiful Bill" and Remittances

The US House of Representatives passed the controversial 'The One, Big, Beautiful Bill'. The Bill includes a significant provision levying an excise tax on every single dollar of remittance or international money transfer made by non-US citizens. The proposal has inevitably sent shockwaves across immigrant communities, especially the Indian diaspora.

• The updated Senate version reduces the tax from the earlier 3.5 percent to just 1 percent. This tax is not expected to apply to Indian residents investing in U.S. stocks and withdrawing their money to bring it back to India.
• The new remittance tax will be in effect from January 1st, 2026. A 3.5% per cent international transaction tax on remittance could cost over USD 1 billion each year in foreign exchange inflow, which could also affect the valuation of the Indian Rupee against the US dollar.
• As per the RBI's March 2025 report, the US accounted for 28% of India's total remittances of $118 billion, which amounts to $33 billion in the financial year 2024.

5. FII and DII Activity

On the institutional activity front, foreign institutional investors (FIIs) net sold shares worth ₹1,970.03 crore. In contrast, domestic institutional investors (DIIs) net bought shares worth ₹725.60 crore on July 1.

6. Other Macroeconomic Factors

• Crude Oil Prices: As India is a major importer of crude oil, fluctuations in global oil prices significantly affect the Indian economy. Rising prices often lead to higher inflation, impacting market sentiment.
• Rupee Value: The value of the Indian Rupee against major currencies like the US Dollar or Euro indicates the strength of India's trade and economy.
• US Job Openings: US employers posted more job openings in April, with vacancies rising by 191,000 to 7.391 million, according to the JOLTS report.
• US Factory Orders: US factory orders declined sharply in April, falling 3.7% after a 3.4% increase in March.

7. Market Outlook

The Indian stock market is setting up for the longest bull run in its history. Increased domestic investment in stocks, growing social equity and other factors could boost earnings 20% annually over the next five years. The market is currently trading just 2–3% below its all-time high. Historically, July has been a seasonally positive month for equities.