As Bihar gears up for the upcoming assembly elections, tensions within the National Democratic Alliance (NDA) appear to be surfacing, with Jitan Ram Manjhi, a key Dalit leader and head of Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular), seemingly cautioning Chirag Paswan, leader of Lok Janshakti Party (Ram Vilas), against repeating past electoral strategies.

Manjhi's warning appears to be referencing Paswan's approach in the 2020 Bihar assembly elections, where the LJP contested 135 of the 243 seats but only secured one victory. The LJP's presence in the fray was estimated to have cost the JD(U) at least 34 seats. In many constituencies, LJP candidates even forfeited their deposits. While the LJP garnered a respectable 10.26 per cent vote share in the seats it contested, analysts suggest its influence is realistically limited to around 25 seats.

The dynamics between Manjhi and Paswan are particularly noteworthy as both leaders represent significant Dalit constituencies in Bihar. With the elections approaching, both leaders are vying for prominence within the NDA and seeking to demonstrate their influence. Manjhi has subtly criticized Paswan's focus on specific Dalit sub-castes, advocating for a broader approach that addresses the needs of all marginalized communities. Paswan, on the other hand, has been vocal about addressing Dalit issues, including their security.

These undercurrents of tension could potentially complicate seat-sharing arrangements within the NDA. The BJP is keen to accommodate its allies, including Manjhi's HAM(S) and Upendra Kushwaha's Rashtriya Lok Morcha, which could impact the number of seats allocated to Chirag's LJP(RV). It's likely that the NDA will offer Chirag's party around 25 seats for the upcoming elections. However, accommodating the demands of other allies like Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Morcha and Jitan Ram Manjhi’s Hindustani Awam Morcha (Secular) could leave barely 200 seats to be divided between the BJP and its principal ally, Nitish Kumar’s Janata Dal (United).

Despite the JD(U)'s historical preference for contesting no fewer than 115 seats in partnership with the BJP, there are indications that the BJP leadership may persuade them to settle for approximately 100. With 80 MLAs in the current legislative assembly, the BJP is unlikely to accept anything less than 100 seats for itself to contest.

Chirag Paswan has stated that his ambitions are centered around Bihar, sparking speculation about a potential shift towards a larger role in state politics. At a recent meeting, Chirag affirmed that the NDA would contest the upcoming Bihar elections under Nitish Kumar's leadership. However, the BJP has refrained from explicitly endorsing Nitish as the chief ministerial candidate, despite public expressions of loyalty from state BJP figures.

As the election landscape unfolds, the interplay between Manjhi and Paswan, and their respective ambitions, will be crucial to observe. The NDA will need to navigate these internal dynamics effectively to present a united front and maintain its competitive edge in the upcoming Bihar elections.