Bitcoin's price is currently navigating a complex landscape, striving for new highs while facing significant resistance around the $110,000 mark. Technical analysis reveals "bearish divergences" that suggest a potential pullback, even as renewed buying interest and strong technical momentum fuel the digital asset's upward trajectory.
Current Market Position
Bitcoin has been trading with positive momentum, recently reaching around $109,000. This surge is attributed to several factors, including positive macroeconomic developments and increased open interest. The price has recovered nearly 7% this week, inching closer to its all-time high.
Resistance at $110,000
Despite the bullish sentiment, Bitcoin is encountering a ceiling at $110,000. Multiple bearish divergences across various timeframes—15-minute, one-hour, and four-hour charts—indicate that while the price is rising, momentum indicators like the Relative Strength Index (RSI) are trending lower. This divergence suggests a weakening bullish drive, raising the possibility of a near-term pullback.
Bearish Divergences Explained
Divergence occurs when the price of an asset moves in the opposite direction of a technical indicator. In this case, Bitcoin's price is making higher highs, but the RSI is showing lower highs. This "bearish divergence" is a warning sign that the upward momentum may be waning, and a price reversal could be imminent. A similar divergence in May coincided with Bitcoin's all-time high of $111,800.
Potential Price Targets
Despite the cautionary signals, analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin's potential. A successful breakout above the $110,000 resistance could pave the way toward $114,500 and potentially $125,000. Some forecasts suggest Bitcoin could reach $115,000 in July 2025 under moderate scenarios, while others project ranges between $121,000 and $135,000 for the quarter.
However, failure to maintain support levels could lead to a retesting of the $104,000-$106,000 range. A drop below $103,700 might trigger a retest of the 100-day EMA near $99,900.
Bullish Indicators
Despite the bearish divergences, several factors support a bullish outlook for Bitcoin. A "Golden Cross" has emerged, with the 100-day moving average crossing above the 200-day moving average, a pattern historically associated with longer-term bullish trends. Sustained buying pressure and strong ETF inflows could also support a breakout.
Expert Projections
Analysts' predictions for Bitcoin's price in 2025 vary widely. Standard Chartered projects Bitcoin reaching $200,000 by year-end 2025, while Fundstrat's Tom Lee presents a more bullish outlook, targeting $150,000 to $250,000 by year-end. Other projections range from $100,000 to $150,000, depending on factors such as ETF inflows, regulatory clarity, and macroeconomic conditions.
Long-Term Outlook
The long-term outlook for Bitcoin remains bullish, fueled by increasing scarcity due to halving cycles, growing global adoption, and its role as a digital store of value. By 2030, some projections estimate Bitcoin could be worth between $250,000 and $1 million.
Critical Levels to Watch
Conclusion
Bitcoin is at a crucial juncture, facing resistance as it aims for new highs. Bearish divergences suggest caution, but strong buying interest and positive technical indicators provide support. Whether Bitcoin can overcome the $110,000 resistance and continue its upward trajectory remains to be seen.
