Gold prices are anticipated to experience significant fluctuations in the coming week, influenced by key global events such as the US Federal Reserve's policy announcements, the looming July 9th deadline for suspended US tariffs, and the release of crucial economic data. Investors are expected to tread cautiously, closely monitoring these policy cues and geopolitical developments that could significantly impact the near-term trajectory of gold prices.
One of the most critical factors is the expiration of the 90-day suspension of Trump-era tariffs on imports from several countries, including India, on July 9th. Failure to extend this suspension could result in a 26% additional duty on Indian goods entering the US, potentially disrupting markets. The outcome of trade negotiations between the US and India is, therefore, a key element to watch. A tariff-reducing deal before the deadline could boost market sentiment and decrease demand for gold as a safe haven.
The market's immediate focus will also be on any commentary regarding potential rate cuts from the US Federal Reserve, the results of US trade negotiations, and new macroeconomic data from major economies, all of which could have a substantial impact on gold prices in the short term. Investors will be closely scrutinizing the minutes from the Fed's FOMC (Federal Open Market Committee) meeting this week for greater clarity on the timing and extent of future rate cuts.
In the global market, gold is currently trading around $3,345 per ounce. However, strong US macroeconomic data has reduced expectations of an interest rate cut in July, according to N S Ramaswamy, Head of Commodities Desk and CRM at Ventura. Despite some corrective rallies, the short-term outlook suggests consolidation and corrective upward movements, followed by a likely continuation of the broader downward trend.
On India's Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX), gold futures for August delivery rose by Rs 1,563, or 1.61 per cent, last week. Last week, safe-haven gold prices on the global markets rose to near $3,340 per ounce and ended the first week of July with gains due to concerns about the US fiscal deficit and tariff uncertainty.
Ricardo Evangelista, senior analyst at ActivTrades, noted that gold's safe-haven appeal is being boosted by concerns over the US fiscal outlook and ongoing tariff-related uncertainty. He anticipates prices to move higher in the near term, attracting additional buying interest as they approach $3,350, with the next significant resistance level around $3,370.
However, it's important to remember that gold's upside may be capped by strong US labor market data. For example, the report that 147,000 jobs were added to the US economy in June 2025. Furthermore, solid US macroeconomic data has tempered expectations of a July interest rate cut.
Overall, analysts expect gold prices to experience heightened volatility amid anticipation of the US Fed's FOMC meeting and potential tariff developments. Gold remains caught between competing forces. Positive trade developments and a stronger US Dollar are pressuring prices, while weak US labor data and expectations of Fed rate cuts are offering support. Until clearer signals emerge from upcoming economic data, gold is likely to trade sideways, balancing risk sentiment and demand for safe havens.
