Indian stock markets are expected to start on a tepid note on July 7, 2025, mirroring weak global cues and uncertainty surrounding US President Donald Trump's tariffs.
Global Market Trends:
- US stock markets closed lower, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipping by 0.24%, the Nasdaq Composite dropping 0.74%, and the S&P 500 falling by 0.64%.
- Asian markets displayed a mixed performance. Japan's Nikkei 225 and South Korea's Kospi experienced declines, while Australia's S&P/ASX 200 remained mostly unchanged.
- US stock futures also traded lower, with Dow Jones Industrial Average futures down 0.32%, S&P 500 futures down 0.39%, and Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.42%.
Key Factors Influencing Market Sentiment:
- US-India Trade Deal: The market is closely watching the outcome of trade discussions between India and the United States, with a reciprocal tariff deadline set to expire on July 9.
- Q1FY26 Earnings: The focus will be on corporate earnings, with major IT company Tata Consultancy Services (TCS) expected to kick off the season on July 10.
- US Tariff Deadline: The end of the 90-day suspension of reciprocal tariffs imposed by the former US President Donald Trump is approaching. The outcome of trade discussions between India and the US is uncertain.
- Global Cues: Global market trends will likely influence investor sentiment.
Nifty 50 and Sensex Predictions:
- Gift Nifty futures were trading at 25,536, indicating a flat start for the Indian benchmark index.
- Kotak Securities noted that the short-term market texture appears positive, but the market is witnessing non-directional activity. For bulls, 83,600 will act as immediate resistance for the Sensex. A successful breakout could push the index towards 85,000-85,300. A fall below 83,000 could turn sentiment negative, potentially leading to a slip to 82,100-81,900.
- Nifty 50 may find buying interest near the support level of 25,300. Near term support and resistance for NIFTY are at 25240/25103 and 25682/25819 respectively.
Sectoral Performance:
- On July 4, most major sectoral indices ended in positive territory, with the exception of Nifty Auto and Nifty Metal.
- Oil & Gas, Realty, Pharmaceuticals, and Information Technology (IT) sectors witnessed strong buying interest.
- Shares of Indian defence companies surged after the Defence Acquisition Council (DAC) approved domestic procurement projects worth Rs 1.05 lakh crore.
Stock Recommendations:
- Sumeet Bagadia, Executive Director at Choice Broking, suggests that the Indian stock market sentiment has improved as the Nifty 50 index bounced back from the 25,350-25,300 range and ended near 25,450.
- Bagadia advises maintaining a stock-specific approach, focusing on stocks that appear strong on the technical chart.
- Stocks to watch include BEML, Tata Steel, Tata Power.
Important Levels to Watch:
- For Nifty 50, immediate resistance is expected at 25,500, and a break above this level could lead to a move towards 25,670 and the 25,800–25,900 zone.
- On the downside, if the market falls below 25,300, it could slip to 25,000–24,950.
- For Bank Nifty, the 20-day SMA (Simple Moving Average) at 56,500 is a key level to monitor. Below this, Bank Nifty could decline to 56,200-56,000.
Other Key Points:
- The rupee closed weaker against the US dollar at 85.40 on Friday.
- The market is open on Monday, July 7, 2025, as there is no holiday declared for Muharram.
