In June 2025, the Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation rate has fallen to 2.1%, marking the lowest level since January 2019. This figure reflects a notable shift in the economic landscape, signaling a potential easing of inflationary pressures that have been a concern for policymakers and consumers alike.

Several factors contributed to this decline. A significant driver was the continued decrease in energy prices, which had a notable impact on the overall inflation rate. Additionally, the rate of increase in food prices has slowed down, further contributing to the easing of inflationary pressure. Month-on-month, food prices even saw a decrease of 0.5%, with notable reductions in the prices of vegetables (-2.2%) and fruit (-0.8%).

However, not all sectors experienced price decreases. There were month-on-month price increases observed particularly for package international holidays (+6.3%) and air tickets (+4.9%). The prices of energy remained stable compared to the previous month (0.0%), with heating oil prices increasing (+3.5%), while prices for firewood, wood pellets and other solid fuels decreased (-0.5%).

Looking at the year-on-year figures, the prices of goods overall rose by 0.8% compared to June 2024. Non-durable consumer goods saw an increase of 1.1%, while durable consumer goods cost 0.5% more. Aside from food price increases (+2.0%), other products that became markedly more expensive include non-alcoholic beverages (+7.9%, including coffee and the like: +19.8%), tobacco products (+6.4%), and motor vehicles (+4.0%). Conversely, price decreases were recorded for energy (-3.5%), mobile phones (-7.1%), information processing equipment (-3.8%), and clothing (-0.5%).

Excluding energy prices, the inflation rate stood at 2.6% in June 2025. The inflation rate excluding food and energy, often referred to as core inflation, was 2.7% in June 2025. These rates have exceeded overall inflation since January 2024, indicating that inflation was above average in other important product groups. The prices of services, in total, increased by 3.3% compared to the same month last year, following a 3.4% increase in May 2025.

The latest CPI data will likely influence the Federal Reserve's monetary policy decisions. With inflation still above the Fed's target, analysts don't expect the central bank to cut interest rates at its upcoming July meeting. The Fed has held rates at their current range between 4.25% and 4.50% throughout 2025. However, bond futures traders see a higher chance of a rate cut in September.

It's important to note that preliminary data from other countries, such as Sweden, indicate an increasing inflation rate in June. This highlights the varying economic conditions and inflationary pressures across different regions.

The decline in CPI inflation to 2.1% in June 2025 is a welcome sign, but it remains to be seen whether this trend will continue in the coming months. The impact of factors such as tariffs and global economic conditions will need to be closely monitored to assess the future direction of inflation.