Prime Minister Narendra Modi's visit to the Maldives from July 25-26, 2025, marks a significant turning point in the relationship between the two nations, especially after the strains caused by the "India Out" campaign. Modi's visit, his first since President Mohamed Muizzu assumed office in November 2023, signals a potential reset in bilateral ties. He will be attending the 60th anniversary of Maldives' independence as the Guest of Honour.
The "India Out" campaign, spearheaded by Muizzu's political faction, had created a challenging environment for the traditionally close relationship between India and the Maldives. This campaign called for the withdrawal of Indian military personnel stationed in the archipelago and fueled a perception of pro-China leanings under Muizzu's leadership. However, geopolitical realities and the Maldives' economic challenges seem to have paved the way for a reconciliation.
Several factors underscore the importance of this visit. First, the Maldives is facing a looming debt crisis, with substantial repayments due in the coming years. The country's public debt has soared, and the government has been adopting austerity measures to manage the situation. During President Muizzu's visit to India in October 2024, he sought financial assistance, leading India to provide a currency swap and roll over credit. This financial support highlights India's willingness to assist its neighbor despite earlier tensions.
Second, India considers the Maldives a crucial maritime neighbor, integral to its "Neighbourhood First" policy and its vision for Security and Growth for All in the Region (SAGAR). The Maldives' strategic location in the Indian Ocean Region makes it essential for India's maritime security and regional stability. Maintaining a strong relationship with the Maldives is, therefore, a priority for India.
Third, the visit aims to strengthen bilateral relations and review the "Comprehensive Economic and Maritime Security Partnership" agreed upon during President Muizzu's visit to India in October 2024. Discussions are underway to negotiate a Free Trade Agreement (FTA) and an investment treaty between the two nations. These discussions also include new areas of cooperation such as renewable energy and fisheries. India is one of the largest trading partners of the Maldives, with bilateral trade reaching nearly $500 million, and Indian investments are already present in Maldivian sectors like tourism.
Moreover, India has been a traditional development partner of the Maldives, executing various projects through concessional lines of credit, grants, and capacity-building programs. The Greater Male Connectivity Project, a flagship initiative, is expected to transform the infrastructure in the region. India also continues to assist the Maldives in building its capacity to train defense personnel and enhance its maritime domain awareness.
PM Modi's visit will also include the inauguration of several India-assisted development projects in the Maldives. This demonstrates India's commitment to the Maldives' economic development and its willingness to support the island nation's growth.
In conclusion, despite the challenges posed by the "India Out" campaign, the imperatives of economic stability, strategic interests, and regional cooperation have brought India and the Maldives back to the table. Modi's visit symbolizes a crucial step towards mending frayed ties and demonstrates the importance of practical geopolitics in overcoming pre-election rhetoric. The focus on strengthening economic partnerships, enhancing maritime security, and furthering development projects indicates a renewed commitment to a stable and prosperous relationship between the two countries.
