Amid growing scrutiny of India's energy ties with Russia, particularly in light of the ongoing war in Ukraine, former U.S. President Donald Trump has voiced cautious optimism regarding reports that India may be halting its imports of Russian oil. Speaking to reporters on Friday, August 1, 2025, before departing the White House, Trump stated, "I understand India no longer is going to be buying oil from Russia. That's what I heard. I don't know if that's right or not, but that's a good step".
Trump's remarks come amidst increasing American pressure on countries maintaining commercial relationships with Moscow. While there has been no official confirmation from New Delhi regarding a potential change in policy, Trump's comments mark the first public acknowledgement from the U.S. administration of a possible shift by India. He has maintained a firm stance against countries maintaining close commercial ties with Moscow. Trump's tone suggested a willingness to engage with India if the reported shift proves accurate, reiterating, "That's a good step," signaling potential diplomatic movement.
This development follows a period of increased trade between India and Russia, particularly in the oil sector. Driven by discounted prices, India's imports of Russian oil surged after the Kremlin's invasion of Ukraine in 2022, helping Moscow offset losses from European markets. In the financial year 2024-25, oil imports from Russia reached 87.4 million tonnes, constituting approximately 36% of India's total oil imports. This is a significant increase from pre-war levels, where Russia's share was less than 2%. The value of these imports amounted to over $50 billion, representing 35% of India's total oil import expenditure of $143 billion. As of June 2025, Russian crude accounted for 43.2% of India's total oil imports.
However, recent reports indicate a potential change in this trend. Indian state-owned oil refiners have reportedly paused Russian oil purchases due to narrowing discounts and shipping challenges. Furthermore, President Trump has warned that buyers of Russian oil could face steep tariffs. Specifically, he has pledged to impose 100% tariffs on countries that continue to import Russian energy unless Moscow ends its war in Ukraine by August 8. Trump had originally set a 50-day deadline but abruptly reduced it to 10 days. In response to growing pressure from Washington, Indian authorities have instructed state-run refiners to create contingency plans and explore alternative crude suppliers, including those in the Middle East and West Africa.
The impact of this pressure appears to be swift. Four major Indian state-owned oil companies, accounting for over 60% of the country's refining capacity, have already suspended purchases of Russian crude. This shift is reflected in July's import figures, with Russian oil imports declining to approximately 1.5 million barrels per day (bpd), the lowest this year after February, compared to 1.95-2.1 million bpd in June. Indian Oil Corporation (IOC), the country's largest refiner, significantly reduced its purchases, with imports crashing by more than half to around 200,000 bpd in July. Imports by Reliance Industries, the biggest buyer of Russian oil, declined 17 per cent in the month to 618,000 bpd.
Despite the actions of state-owned refiners, private refiners like Reliance Industries and Nayara Energy continue to be significant importers of Russian oil. Nayara Energy, partially owned by Russia's Rosneft, has faced increased scrutiny, including being named in the EU's 18th sanctions package.
The situation remains dynamic, with India balancing its energy needs, economic interests, and geopolitical considerations. Randhir Jaiswal, spokesperson of the Ministry of External Affairs, defended India's ties with Moscow, emphasizing the "steady and time-tested partnership" between the two countries. He also highlighted India's comprehensive global strategic partnership with the U.S., "anchored in shared interests, democratic values and robust people-to-people ties".
