Indian stock markets are expected to start on a positive note on August 4, 2025, after having endured a losing streak for the past five weeks. The GIFT Nifty was trading around 24,675, indicating a premium of nearly 48 points from Nifty futures' previous close.
Global and Domestic Cues
Mixed global market cues are expected to set a cautious tone for the opening of the Indian benchmark indices, Sensex and Nifty 50. Asian markets slipped, mirroring losses on Wall Street, due to renewed concerns about the U.S. economy. Simultaneously, markets have almost fully priced in a September rate cut, putting pressure on the dollar. European indices like CAC 40 and DAX posted steep losses, contributing to a subdued global risk sentiment.
On the domestic front, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meeting is scheduled for August 4–6, 2025, and the decision is to be announced on August 8. There is speculation of a 25 basis point rate cut, which could trigger a rally in rate-sensitive sectors such as banks, autos, and real estate.
Market Performance and Analysis
On Friday, August 1, the NSE Nifty 50 settled 203 points or 0.82% lower at 24,565.35, while the Sensex lost 585.67 points or 0.72% to close at 80,599.91. Indian equities experienced their longest losing streak in two years, driven by global headwinds and persistent selling pressure.
According to Puneet Singhania, Director at Master Trust Group, a cautious to slightly bearish tone is expected, influenced by trade headwinds, capital outflows, and selective earnings outcomes, with the possibility of tactical sectoral rebounds.
The Nifty 50 index formed a High Wave candlestick pattern on the daily timeframe, reflecting indecision in the market. It also formed an Inverted Hammer candlestick pattern on the weekly timeframe, suggesting a potential reversal. The index ended the week nearly 1.00% lower, closing at 24,565.35, and slipping below key Exponential Moving Averages (EMAs), confirming a weakening trend. The index continues to form a lower high lower low pattern, while momentum indicators like RSI and MACD remain bearish, reinforcing short-term technical weakness.
Trading Strategy and Key Levels
A sell-on-rise strategy is advised unless the Nifty 50 reclaims the 24,750–24,800 zone. A breach below 24,500 may accelerate the downside towards 24,100–24,000. The Nifty 50 may find support at 25,400–25,500 levels, while 24,770 will be the crucial first resistance zone.
According to Choice Broking, support levels for Nifty are at 24,400 - 24,180, and resistance levels are at 24,800-25,000, with an overall bias from sideways to bearish. Nifty's ability to hold above the crucial 24,180 support will be pivotal; staying above this level could pave the way for a relief rally, while a break below may trigger further downside.
For the Sensex, immediate resistance lies between 81,500 and 81,700, and a sustained move above this zone is required to shift momentum back in favor of the bulls, potentially paving the way for a move toward 82,200. On the downside, support lies at the 80,000 - 79,800 zone, and a breach below this level may trigger further selling, dragging the Sensex toward 79,200 – 79,000 in the near term.
FII and DII Activity
Foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) have been net sellers for 10 straight sessions, pulling out more than ₹27,000 crore in equities. On Friday, August 1, foreign portfolio investors stayed net sellers of Indian equities for the tenth consecutive session, offloading shares worth Rs 3,366 crore. Domestic institutional investors (DIIs) have remained buyers for the 20th straight session, mopping up stocks worth Rs 3,186.86 crore.
Stocks to Watch
ITC Ltd., Shriram Pistons Ltd., ABB India Ltd., LIC Housing Finance Ltd., and Tata Motors Ltd. shares are likely to be in focus because of the first-quarter results. DLF, Siemens Energy, Federal Bank, ITC, and PNB Housing will also be in the spotlight, as they release first-quarter earnings and navigate notable news developments.
