Bitcoin is facing a potentially bearish August, historically a challenging month for the cryptocurrency, with analysts closely watching the $110,000 support level as pivotal for its near-term trajectory. Over the weekend, Bitcoin experienced a 5% dip, falling from approximately $118,330 on Friday to $112,300 on Sunday. On Monday, Bitcoin recovered to $114,800.
IG Markets analyst Tony Sycamore highlighted the importance of the $110,000 support, stating that a hold above this level could allow Bitcoin to retest its all-time high. Sycamore noted that the recent pullback tested the support from the previous record high of $112,000, which acted as a logical pullback target.
However, Sycamore also pointed out significant monthly resistance just above the all-time high, around $125,000, suggesting a lack of immediate catalysts for a breakout. Should risk appetite decline further in August and Bitcoin break below the $110,000 support, Sycamore warned of a potential correction towards the 200-day moving average, around $99,355. This echoes Arthur Hayes's recent warning that macroeconomic pressures could pull Bitcoin back to the $100,000 level.
According to Glassnode, August has historically been a bearish month for Bitcoin since 2013. In 2024, Bitcoin shed 8.6% in August, falling to just over $59,000. The average loss in August has been 11.4%. Should history repeat itself, Bitcoin could potentially drop to around $105,000 this month. Data from CoinGlass indicates that Bitcoin has declined in 8 out of the past 12 Augusts.
Despite the bearish historical trend for August, several analysts remain optimistic about Bitcoin's potential, provided it maintains key support levels. Analyst @Ali_charts suggested that Bitcoin could reach $130,000 if it holds support above $110,000, basing this prediction on Glassnode's MVRV pricing bands. According to this model, maintaining support above $110,756 could drive Bitcoin towards the +2.0 sigma level, near $130,000.
Crypto analyst Michaël van de Poppe also believes Bitcoin is positioned for a major breakout, stating that holding above $116,800 could lead to new all-time highs soon. Van de Poppe's chart identifies the $110,000–$112,000 range as an ideal accumulation zone, with $119,500 marked as a key resistance to test for a fresh upward run.
Analysts also point to subdued capital inflows as a sign that the current rally has room to gain momentum before reaching an over-optimistic "euphoria zone". As of late July 2025, net crypto inflows over the prior 30 days totaled $82 billion.
However, a break below the $110,000 support could invalidate the bullish scenario and lead to a retest of lower support levels. Despite institutional adoption and macroeconomic factors providing a foundation for growth, Bitcoin's trajectory will depend on maintaining critical price thresholds and managing inflows without triggering overheating dynamics.
Adding to the market dynamics, Bitcoin's price experienced a dip below $115,000 in early August, further declining below $113,000 following geopolitical concerns. This volatility occurred alongside a spike in Bitcoin spot volume on Binance, reaching over $7.6 billion daily. Such volume spikes have historically correlated with local bottoms or major price reversals, potentially indicating renewed investor demand.
Additionally, the U.S. Federal Reserve's net liquidity witnessed a significant increase, which could further influence the market. Increased net liquidity implies more fiat money circulating in the financial system, potentially flowing into risk assets like Bitcoin.
