Prime Minister Narendra Modi is likely to visit China for the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation (SCO) Summit in Tianjin from August 31 to September 1, marking his first trip to the country in seven years. This visit signals a potential thaw in bilateral relations following the Galwan Valley clash in 2020, which significantly strained ties.
Background and Significance
Modi's last visit to China was in 2018 for the SCO Summit in Qingdao, preceded by an informal summit with President Xi Jinping in Wuhan. In 2019, Xi Jinping visited India for a second informal summit intended to address the fallout from the Doklam standoff in 2017. However, within months, relations plummeted after skirmishes in the Ladakh sector of the Line of Actual Control (LAC) in April-May 2020, culminating in the Galwan Valley clash in June, which resulted in casualties on both sides.
In October 2024, both countries reached an understanding to end the LAC standoff, followed by a meeting between Modi and Xi in Kazan, Russia, where they agreed to revive mechanisms to normalize relations and address the boundary dispute.
SCO Summit in Tianjin
The SCO Summit in Tianjin is the 25th Heads of State Council meeting of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization. China has the rotating presidency of the SCO for 2024-2025. The summit will provide a platform for discussions on regional security, counter-terrorism, and trade among the 10 member countries.
Potential Bilateral Talks
Modi's visit raises the possibility of a bilateral meeting with President Xi Jinping. Potential discussion points include further steps to normalize relations, de-escalation on the LAC, resumption of direct flights, reopening of border trade points, and people-to-people exchanges. India has also raised concerns regarding restrictions on exports of rare earth materials and fertilizers.
India's Stance on Terrorism
India has been firm on addressing its concerns regarding terrorism within SCO narratives. In June, Defence Minister Rajnath Singh refused to sign a joint statement at a SCO Defence Ministers' Meeting because it omitted any mention of the April 22 Pahalgam terror attack. India has emphasized the need to avoid double standards in the fight against terrorism and to take action against UN-proscribed terrorists and entities.
Geopolitical Context
Modi's visit occurs amid rising tensions with the U.S. over trade tariffs and the purchase of Russian oil. The U.S. President Donald Trump has imposed stiff tariffs on India and has criticized BRICS nations for buying oil from Russia. India's participation in the SCO summit, along with potential bilateral meetings with Russia and China, could signal a recalibration of ties and strategic autonomy.
India-China Relations: Key Issues
Implications
Modi's visit to China for the SCO Summit represents a step toward stabilizing India-China relations after a period of significant strain. The visit offers an opportunity to address key issues and promote mutual understanding, but challenges remain. The evolving geopolitical landscape, including tensions with the U.S., adds complexity to the dynamics between India and China.
