The Indian stock market is likely to begin trading on August 18, 2025, with a generally optimistic outlook, following a week where it snapped a six-week losing streak. However, experts advise caution, pointing to range-bound trading and the need for fresh triggers to sustain any upward momentum.
Market Sentiment and Key Levels
Market sentiment has improved after recent relief rallies, but the Nifty 50 faces an immediate hurdle at 24,650. Overcoming this level could trigger another 100-point rally. A broader range for the Nifty 50 is seen between 24,300 and 24,650, with 24,000 to 24,800 acting as a wider range. A breakout from either side of this range may establish a clearer bullish or bearish trend. If the rally extends, the Nifty 50 could potentially reach 24,800.
Predictions suggest that the Nifty may increase if it surpasses 24,600, but could decline if it falls below 24,400. These movements are contingent on global cues. Resistance is anticipated between 24,600 and 24,900, while support lies between 24,400 and 24,000.
According to technical analysis, key support levels for the Nifty 50 are 24,595, 24,535, and 24,460, while resistance levels are identified at 24,670, 24,737, and 24,820. The Nifty might remain in a no-trading zone between 24,595 and 24,670.
Factors Influencing the Market
Several factors are expected to influence the stock market. Anticipation of potential GST reforms and the outcome of the Trump-Putin meeting in Alaska may play a role. U.S. Federal Reserve minutes, potential tariffs on India by the U.S., favorable monsoon conditions, and low inflation rates are other significant factors.
Global sentiment may provide underlying strength, particularly to cyclical and banking stocks, due to firm closes in U.S. and European markets. Persistent selling pressure from Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) might limit upside moves, while strong inflows from Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) could cushion declines, keeping intraday swings in focus.
Bank Nifty Outlook
The Nifty Bank index closed higher at 55,341.85, driven by gains in HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank, and State Bank of India. AU Bank was a top gainer, while IDFC First Bank was the biggest loser. The overall market sentiment remained positive, with most constituents advancing.
Near-term support for Bank Nifty is at 54,947/54,703, and resistance is at 55,737/55,981. A break above 55,700 could push the index towards the 20-day Simple Moving Average (SMA) near 56,000 to 56,300, while a drop below 55,000 might trigger increased selling pressure.
Expert Recommendations
Sumeet Bagadia from Choice Broking believes that the Indian stock market bias has improved but notes that the Nifty is trading in a tight range. Dharmesh Shah from ICICI Securities anticipates the Nifty 50 heading towards the psychological mark of 25,000 in the coming weeks.
