The recent meeting between President Trump and Ukrainian President Zelenskyy at the White House, along with European leaders, has sparked discussions about the ongoing war in Ukraine and its broader implications, including potential impacts on international trade. One area of concern is the effect this diplomatic activity might have on Trump's tariff policies, particularly those directed at India.

Trump's Tariffs on India: A Background

During his second term, President Trump has implemented a series of tariffs affecting numerous goods imported into the United States. In early August 2025, his administration imposed a 25% tariff on Indian goods, followed by a threatened additional 25% tariff later in the same month. These tariffs are ostensibly related to distinct issues. The initial tariff stemmed from the failure to secure a trade deal by August 1st. The subsequent tariff is linked to the US's efforts to pressure Russia to end the war in Ukraine, as India continues to purchase Russian oil.

India's Stance

India's Ministry of External Affairs has criticized the tariffs as "unfair, unjustified, and unreasonable," asserting that India will take necessary steps to protect its national interests. Some experts suggest that these tariffs could strain US-India relations. White House trade advisor Peter Navarro stated that India's continued purchases of Russian crude oil were funding Moscow's war in Ukraine. He added that India was acting as a global clearinghouse for Russian oil by converting embargoed crude into high-value exports, providing Moscow with needed dollars.

The Link to the Trump-Zelenskyy Meeting

The meeting between Trump, Zelenskyy, and European leaders is focused on finding a resolution to the conflict in Ukraine. Trump has proposed a summit between Putin and Zelenskyy to facilitate discussions. The US president says security guarantees for Kyiv could be provided by European countries with 'coordination' by Washington.

If these diplomatic efforts succeed in de-escalating or resolving the conflict, it could influence Trump's approach to tariffs on India. A ceasefire or peace deal might reduce the US's need to pressure Russia's trade partners, including India. However, if the US perceives that India is not sufficiently supporting efforts to end the war, or is even undermining them through continued trade with Russia, the tariffs could remain in place or potentially increase.

Potential Outcomes

Several outcomes are possible:

• Tariff Reduction: If the Ukraine conflict de-escalates and India reduces its reliance on Russian oil, Trump could reduce or eliminate the tariffs. This would likely be seen as a goodwill gesture and a sign of improved relations between the US and India.
• Tariffs Remain: If India continues its current trade practices with Russia, despite US pressure, the existing tariffs may remain in place. This could lead to increased trade tensions and potentially harm the US-India partnership.
• Increased Tariffs: If the US determines that India is actively undermining efforts to end the war in Ukraine, the administration could increase tariffs further. This would likely result in a significant deterioration of US-India relations.

The Trump-Zelenskyy meeting and any subsequent developments in the Ukraine conflict could significantly influence the future of Trump's tariff policies toward India. The administration's actions will likely depend on its assessment of India's role in the conflict and its willingness to align with US foreign policy objectives.