Bitcoin's price performance is currently under scrutiny, with analysts suggesting the bull market might be approaching its end as the cryptocurrency exhibits characteristics of a "late" maturity phase. After an impressive surge of 700% from a cycle low of $15,500 in November 2022 to a high of $124,500, Bitcoin is now struggling to maintain its momentum above the $114,000 mark.
Several on-chain metrics indicate a potential waning of bullish sentiment. Market intelligence firm Glassnode, in its recent "Week On-chain" report, suggests that based on previous cycles, Bitcoin's price could be just two to three months away from its cycle top. Crypto analyst Rekt Capital has also pointed to a similar timeframe, estimating a potential peak in mid-September to mid-October 2025 if historical halving cycles are followed.
One of the key indicators of this late-stage cycle is the elevated level of Bitcoin supply in profit, which has persisted for 273 days, signaling a potential cycle peak soon. Furthermore, long-term holders (LTHs), defined as investors holding Bitcoin for at least 155 days, have been realizing profits at levels comparable to past euphoric phases. This heightened profit-taking activity by LTHs adds to the sell-side pressure, a typical characteristic of market tops.
Adding to the cautious outlook is the weakening demand for Bitcoin, with capital inflows showing signs of fatigue. Despite reaching a new all-time high of $124,400, the realized cap increase was only 6% monthly, compared to 13% during the initial breakout to $100,000 in late 2024. Spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) have also experienced outflows, further indicating a decrease in demand.
However, not all analysts agree that the four-year cycle is over. Some argue that increasing institutional interest and the growing number of public treasuries holding Bitcoin could lead to a different outcome. As of August 10, 2025, the top 100 treasury companies held almost 1 million Bitcoin. Ming Shing Group, a Hong Kong construction giant, recently announced plans to purchase 4,250 Bitcoin valued at $483 million, joining the 297 public entities holding over 3.67 million BTC collectively.
Despite these arguments, Glassnode's analysis suggests that the current cycle has reached the second-longest duration on record for Bitcoin supply remaining above profitable levels. The firm also notes that the drop in demand has pushed traders toward riskier bets on volatility, with open interest across major altcoins briefly reaching a record high before correcting.
Technically, Bitcoin faces a critical support level at $110,000. Analyst Rekt Capital suggests that a convincing loss of this level could lead to further downside, potentially pushing Bitcoin into the $90,000-$100,000 range.
The situation remains fluid, with some analysts still optimistic about a potential "supercycle" that could drive Bitcoin past $200,000 by late 2025. However, the cryptocurrency has been consolidating within a tight range of $116,000-$125,000, indicating a potential exhaustion of the current rally. Whether this consolidation precedes a massive rally or marks the beginning of a significant correction remains to be seen.
