Jammu and Kashmir's hydroelectric projects have become increasingly significant in the complex relationship between India and Pakistan, particularly concerning water resource control. With the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT) between the two nations now in question, these projects carry greater strategic weight.

Background of the Dams

Jammu and Kashmir possesses considerable hydroelectric potential, estimated at 18,000 MW, with about 14,867 MW identified for harnessing. As of early 2025, the utilized capacity stands at approximately 3,540.15 MW, distributed across state, central, and independent power producers. Key projects include the Baglihar, Salal, and Uri hydroelectric plants. These projects are primarily located on the Chenab and Jhelum rivers, which are part of the Indus River system.

Strategic Importance

These dams give India a strategic upper hand due to the geography of the region. The Indus River and its tributaries flow from India into Pakistan, making India a vital upper riparian. This positioning enables India to regulate the water flow downstream, which has significant implications for Pakistan, especially its agricultural sector that relies heavily on these rivers.

Recent Developments

Amidst heightened tensions following the Pahalgam terror attack, India has taken actions concerning the Indus Waters Treaty (IWT). In early May 2025, India initiated the "flushing" of the Baglihar and Salal dams on the Chenab River. This process, which involves releasing water to clear silt, was conducted earlier than usual and without prior notification to Pakistan, a departure from standard IWT practices. While Indian officials have stated that this was for desilting purposes, the timing and execution have raised concerns in Pakistan regarding potential water scarcity, especially during the crucial Kharif sowing season.

Implications of India's Actions

• Water Regulation: The ability to control water release from these dams allows India to manage the timing and volume of water flowing into Pakistan. This control can be used to mitigate flood risks or, conversely, to reduce water availability during critical agricultural periods.
• Treaty Abeyance: India's decision to keep the IWT "in abeyance" after the Pahalgam attack signals a shift in its approach to the treaty. By suspending the treaty, India can exert greater control over the rivers, potentially using this leverage in negotiations with Pakistan.
• Infrastructure Development: India is actively pursuing additional hydropower projects in Jammu and Kashmir. Projects like the Pakal Dul, Ratle, and Kiru hydroelectric plants are under construction and are expected to significantly increase India's power generation capacity and water storage capabilities.
• Economic and Agricultural Impact: Any disruption in water flow can severely affect Pakistan's agriculture, which depends on the Indus basin. Reduced water availability can lead to crop failures and economic instability, exacerbating existing tensions.

Pakistan's Concerns

Pakistani authorities have expressed concerns over the reduced water levels in the Chenab River following India's dam operations. They worry about the impact on their Kharif crops, including essential food crops like paddy and maize. The lack of real-time data on water levels and the sudden changes in river flow have added to these concerns.

India's Perspective

Indian officials maintain that the operations are within their rights and necessary for maintaining the efficiency and longevity of the hydroelectric projects. They also emphasize that increased storage capacity and power generation will benefit the region. India aims to double its hydel power generation capacity in Jammu and Kashmir, utilizing the region's potential to meet local demand and export surplus power.

Future Outlook

The situation remains tense, with the Indus Waters Treaty's future uncertain. India's continued development and operation of dams in Jammu and Kashmir will likely remain a contentious issue. Both countries need to engage in constructive dialogue to address water management concerns and ensure equitable water distribution, balancing economic needs with regional stability. The reopening of two gates at the Baglihar Dam due to heavy rainfall on May 8, 2025, further illustrates the dynamic nature of water management in the region and the need for continuous monitoring and communication.