India's retail inflation has eased to 3.16% in April 2025, marking its lowest point since July 2019, according to official data released by the Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation. This decline from 3.34% in March is primarily attributed to a further moderation in food prices.

The year-on-year inflation rate based on the All India Consumer Food Price Index (CFPI) stood at 1.78% in April 2025, compared to April 2024. The decline in both headline and food inflation is mainly due to decreased prices in essential categories, including vegetables, pulses and products, fruits, meat and fish, personal care items, and cereals and products.

Retail inflation last breached the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) upper tolerance level of 6% in October 2024. Since then, it has remained within the 2-6% range, which the RBI considers manageable. The central bank aims to maintain retail inflation around 4%.

The RBI held its benchmark repo rate steady at 6.5% for the eleventh consecutive time before cutting it for the first time in about five years in February 2025. Following its April monetary policy review meeting, the RBI expressed confidence that inflation would remain under control during the financial year 2025-26. RBI Governor, Sanjay Malhotra, projected an annual Consumer Price Index (CPI) inflation of 4.0%, assuming a normal monsoon. The CPI inflation is expected to be 3.6% in the first quarter, 3.9% in the second quarter, 3.8% in the third quarter, and 4.4% in the fourth quarter, with risks evenly balanced.

A Mint poll of 21 economists anticipated retail inflation to ease further to 3.2% in April, from 3.34% the previous month. The continued softening of food prices has kept retail inflation below the RBI's medium-term target of 4% since February. If the projections hold true, this would represent the longest streak of continuous easing in inflation in at least the past five years.

Rural inflation cooled to 2.92% in April from 3.25% in March, while urban inflation contracted to 3.36% compared to 3.43% a month earlier.

NSO data revealed a sharp decline of 91 basis points in food inflation in April 2025 compared to March 2025. The food inflation in April 2025 is the lowest since October 2021. Food inflation in April was 1.78%, lower than 2.69% in the preceding month and 8.7% in the year-ago month.

There was deflation in potato (12.7%), tomato (33.21%), chicken (6.78%), arhar (14.27%), and jeera (20.79%) during April on an annual basis. During April, inflation in mustard oil was at 19.6%, refined oil (sunflower, soyabean) at 23.75%, apple at 17%, and onion at 2.94%.