The monsoon has covered the entire country of India, as of June 29, 2025, nine days ahead of its normal schedule. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has issued red alerts for Uttarakhand, Himachal Pradesh, Odisha, and Jharkhand, anticipating heavy rainfall.

Monsoon's Progress and Impact

The southwest monsoon's arrival in Kerala on May 24, eight days earlier than usual, marked the earliest onset since 2009. Supported by low-pressure systems in the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal, it advanced rapidly, covering central Maharashtra and the entire northeast by May 29. After a period of stagnation, the monsoon revived, reaching Delhi and other remaining parts of Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, and Haryana by June 29. This early coverage is only the tenth instance since 1960 of the monsoon covering the entire country in June.

The monsoon is crucial for India's economy, delivering about 70% of the rainfall needed for agriculture and replenishing water resources. Nearly half of India's farmland relies on the June-September rains for crop growth. An above-average monsoon is expected to boost agricultural production and ease food inflation. The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) anticipates that higher agricultural output due to the monsoon will help moderate inflation.

Red Alert Regions

• Uttarakhand: A red alert is in effect for several districts, including Dehradun, Uttarkashi, Tehri, Haridwar, and Nainital, for June 29 and 30. A cloudburst in Uttarkashi caused two deaths and left seven missing. The Char Dham Yatra has been temporarily suspended.
• Himachal Pradesh: Red and orange alerts have been issued for multiple districts, with warnings of heavy rainfall, thunderstorms, and lightning. Kangra, Mandi, Solan, and Sirmaur are under red alert, while Una, Hamirpur, Bilaspur, and Shimla are under orange alert. 17 deaths have been reported in Himachal Pradesh since the monsoon's onset on June 20. The Shimla-Kalka heritage rail line has been suspended due to boulder and tree falls.
• Odisha: A red alert has been issued for Mayurbhanj, Keonjhar, Sundargarh, and Balasore, with forecasts of extremely heavy rains. An orange alert is in place for other districts until July 6. Fishermen are advised against venturing into the sea.
• Jharkhand: A red alert is in effect until July 1, with expectations of extremely heavy rainfall. Ranchi has experienced light to moderate rain, with heavy showers predicted.

Factors Contributing to Early Monsoon

Several factors contributed to the monsoon's early arrival:

• Strong cross-equatorial winds: These winds blew from the southern hemisphere towards India.
• Warmer oceans: Above-normal sea surface temperatures in the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal led to more evaporation and stronger air currents.
• Early low-pressure systems: These systems, including one over the Bay of Bengal, helped accelerate monsoon winds.
• Favorable Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) phase: The MJO, a moving pulse of clouds and rainfall, boosted convection and triggered rainfall.
• Weakening El Niño and developing La Niña conditions: The shift in the Pacific Ocean favored a stronger and earlier monsoon.

Predictions for the 2025 Monsoon Season

The IMD forecasts above-normal monsoon rains for the second consecutive year in 2025. The country is likely to receive 106% of the Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall. Central India and the southern Peninsular region are expected to receive above-normal rainfall. The Monsoon Core Zone (MCZ) is also projected to receive above-normal rainfall, which should boost the Kharif cropping season.