Despite recent trade tensions and disagreements over energy policy, former U.S. President Donald Trump maintains a positive view of his relationship with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi, even though he deplores India's continued oil trade with Russia.
Trump's recent statements reflect a complex dynamic between the two countries. On one hand, he has praised Modi as a "great leader". On the other hand, he has expressed strong disapproval of India's continued purchase of Russian crude oil, particularly in light of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine. This stance aligns with the U.S. efforts to isolate Russia economically and limit its ability to finance the war.
India, however, has firmly defended its decision to continue importing Russian oil, citing national interests and economic necessity. Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman has stated that India will continue to buy oil from wherever it suits their needs best, considering factors like rates and logistics. This position is driven by the fact that India is the world's third-largest consumer of crude oil and relies on imports for about 88% of its requirements. Russian crude, often available at a discount, has helped India save billions of dollars in foreign exchange.
Trump's administration has responded to India's oil trade with Russia by imposing tariffs on Indian goods. Most recently, the U.S. has imposed tariffs as high as 50 percent on goods from India. The move is viewed as a way to pressure India to reduce its reliance on Russian energy sources and comply with the international sanctions regime.
The Indian government has said that the impact of tariffs imposed by the U.S. would be offset by the Goods and Services Tax (GST) reforms. The government is also working on measures to support those affected by the high tariffs.
Despite the disagreements over trade and energy policy, the U.S. and India continue to engage in other areas of cooperation. Recently, Trump hosted a gathering of technology leaders at the White House, which included several prominent Indian-origin CEOs.
Some analysts believe that Trump's actions are designed to pressure Russia into ending the war in Ukraine. Others suggest that there is a personal element to Trump's stance, with some observers noting that Trump seems miffed that New Delhi has contradicted his claims about averting nuclear war between India and Pakistan.
The situation is further complicated by the evolving geopolitical landscape. Trump has expressed concern that India and Russia have been "lost" to China. He also shared a photo featuring Prime Minister Narendra Modi, Russian President Vladimir Putin, and Chinese President Xi Jinping from the SCO summit. This reflects a broader concern about the growing influence of China and the potential for a shift in the global balance of power.
India's willingness to purchase Russian crude has significant implications for global oil flows, preventing complete isolation of Russian production capacity, moderating price increases, creating new trade patterns, and demonstrating the limitations of unilateral sanctions in a multipolar world.