Stock Market Outlook: Nifty 50, Global Cues, and India-US Trade Deal

The Indian stock market is poised for a week of significant activity, influenced by global cues, domestic factors, and developments in the India-US trade relationship. For the week ending September 12, 2025, the Nifty 50 index demonstrated gains of over 1.5%, buoyed by positive global market trends. The Bank Nifty also saw a rise of 1.3%, with IT, metals, and auto sectors contributing to the gains. Mid- and small-cap stocks also experienced growth of around 2%.

Global Market Influences and US Fed Rate Cut Expectations

Globally, all eyes are on the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) policy decision, with widespread expectations of a rate cut following weaker US job data and moderating inflation. Markets have largely priced in a 25 basis point rate cut from the current 4.25-4.50% range, though some anticipate a larger 50 basis point cut. The FOMC meeting will also provide updated projections for future interest rates, offering insights into the policymakers' outlook.

Recent labor market data, including increased unemployment claims, has shifted the focus from inflation, leading traders to anticipate potential rate cuts from the Federal Reserve. Futures markets are now factoring in nearly three quarter-point rate cuts this year, overshadowing inflation concerns and boosting investor confidence.

Besides the US Fed, interest rate announcements from the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan could also impact investor sentiment in emerging markets like India.

India-US Trade Deal Developments

Updates on the progress of the India-US trade deal remain a key factor to watch. Negotiations between India and the US for a trade agreement are progressing positively, with both countries expressing satisfaction. The aim is to conclude the first phase by November 2025, with discussions ongoing to address trade barriers and high tariffs. The goal is to significantly increase bilateral trade to USD 500 billion by 2030.

Union Minister Piyush Goyal has expressed confidence that the first phase of the India-US trade agreement should be finalized by November 2025. President Trump has also signaled optimism, stating that negotiations are continuing to address trade barriers. Prime Minister Modi has echoed this sentiment, expressing confidence that the talks will unlock the potential of the India-US partnership.

Nifty 50 Technical Outlook

According to Sudeep Shah, Vice-President & Head of Technical and Derivatives Research, SBI Securities, the 25150–25200 zone will act as a near-term resistance for Nifty. A sustained move above 25200 could trigger a sharp rally towards 25500, and eventually 25700 in the short term. The 24950–24900 zone is expected to offer strong support. Another report mentions key Nifty levels as, Resistance: 25223, 25302, 25380, 25444 and Support: 25066, 24987, 24908, 24830.

Analysts expect banks, financials, autos, consumption themes, and metals to outperform. Immediate resistance for Nifty is seen at 25153, derived from previous swing high. On the lower side, a level around 24800 could offer immediate support.

Trading Recommendations

Market experts suggest a "buy on dips" strategy, focusing on accumulating quality names across sectors.

Stocks to Watch

Market experts have recommended the following stocks for potential buying or selling: BEML Ltd., Astra Microwave Products Ltd., Vedanta Ltd., Hindustan Zinc Ltd., Prestige Estates Projects Ltd., Ideaforge Technology Ltd., Finolex Industries Ltd., and HBL Engineering Ltd. * BEML Ltd: Sumeet Bagadia recommends buying BEML around ₹4420, keeping a stop loss at ₹4250, with a target price of ₹4777.

Monday's Trading Setup

For Monday, September 15th, 2025, analysts suggest that the early strength or weakness is likely to be a trap, with a significant reality check mid-week.