The 2025 Nobel Peace Prize announcement awarding Venezuelan opposition leader María Corina Machado is under scrutiny following unusual betting activity on the blockchain-based prediction market, Polymarket. Norwegian officials are investigating a potential information leak from the Nobel Committee after Machado's odds of winning surged hours before the official announcement.
Prior to the announcement, Yulia Navalnaya, the widow of Russian dissident Alexei Navalny, and former U.S. President Donald Trump were considered frontrunners. However, Machado's odds on Polymarket jumped from 3.75% to 72.8% within two hours, raising suspicions of insider trading. This dramatic shift occurred around midnight in Norway, approximately 11 hours before the official announcement, when Machado's odds implied only a 5% chance of winning.
Kristian Berg Harpviken, director of the Nobel Institute, stated that they may have fallen "prey to a criminal actor who wants to earn money on our information". He told Aftenposten that it was “too early to be certain” if the winner had been leaked but that he expected an investigation to be launched.
Several Polymarket users reportedly profited from the surge. One account, "6741," opened specifically for the Nobel market, earned over $50,000. Another, "dirtycup," wagered nearly $70,000 and made around $30,000, while a third, "GayPride," reportedly gained about $85,000. The user "dirtycup" had only opened their Polymarket account this month and had never used it to bet on any other markets.
The incident has sparked debate about the operation of prediction markets and whether insider information improves market accuracy or erodes trust and fairness. Polymarket, a decentralized platform based offshore, operates outside most insider-trading regulations that apply to traditional markets. This raises questions about the legality of profiting from leaked information, even if no laws were explicitly broken.
Speculation has arisen regarding the source of the leak. One theory suggests the Nobel Prize website may have been scraped to recover information indicating Machado's victory before the official announcement. An alleged insider hinted that the data leak may have originated from the Nobel Prize website and that the privileged information leading to the bet was “accessible to anyone”. It's possible that information hinting at Machado's win was available on the website hours before the announcement. Another theory suggests a human element, such as the developer who managed the website, could have leaked the information.
Polymarket allows users to bet on the outcome of real-world events. In 2022, Polymarket agreed with regulators to stop serving US-based users because it wasn't a registered exchange. Despite this, Polymarket secured a $2 billion investment from Intercontinental Exchange Inc., valuing the firm at approximately $8 billion.
The Nobel Committee received 338 nominations for the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize. Machado, a key figure in Venezuela's opposition to President Nicolás Maduro, was barred from running in the 2024 presidential election. She dedicated her award to U.S. President Donald Trump and the people of Venezuela.
