Bitcoin's recent drop below the $100,000 mark has sparked concerns that the bull run may be nearing its end. This downturn is attributed to a combination of factors, including hawkish signals from the Federal Reserve and persistent selling pressure from large Bitcoin holders, often referred to as "whales". A classic technical analysis pattern, known as the Wyckoff Distribution, is further fueling these concerns, suggesting a potential decline towards $86,000.
The Wyckoff Distribution is a schematic pattern that typically appears near market tops, outlining phases of accumulation and distribution of assets. According to analyst @follis_ on X, Bitcoin's recent price action closely mirrors this pattern, leading to the observation that the bull market "might actually be over". The surge above $122,000 represented a "Buying Climax (BC)," followed by an "Automatic Reaction (AR)" and "Secondary Tests (ST)" that failed to establish higher highs. In early October, a push towards $126,200 resembled an "Upthrust After Distribution (UTAD)," a final bullish attempt that signals exhaustion of demand.
Following the UTAD, Bitcoin exhibited multiple "Last Points of Supply (LPSY)" and subsequently lost mid-range support near $110,000, confirming Phase D of the Wyckoff Distribution. The drop below the $102,000–$104,000 AR/SOW zone transitioned Bitcoin into Phase E, the markdown phase, accelerating the decline. As of Friday, Bitcoin had fallen below $95,000 on Binance. Based on the Wyckoff method, the $122,000–$104,000 distribution band implies a potential $18,000 downside projection, placing the primary target at $86,000.
This bearish shift coincides with a decline in global risk appetite, driven by anxieties that the Federal Reserve might not cut interest rates in December. The U.S. government shutdown, which concluded on Thursday, further complicated matters by restricting access to crucial economic data, making policymakers hesitant about easing monetary policy. This uncertainty has reverberated throughout risk assets, including Bitcoin.
Despite these bearish signals, some analysts remain optimistic, suggesting that the bull market could persist as long as the $94,000 support level holds. Technical indicators, such as the oversold Relative Strength Index (RSI) and flattening Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD), suggest a potential relief bounce.
However, a sustained recovery hinges on renewed buying momentum, inflows into Bitcoin ETFs, and overall macroeconomic stability. Bitcoin is stabilizing around $106,200, and EMAs suggest potential support at $106,060. Some analysts predict Bitcoin could reach $114,500 by the end of November 2025. Looking further ahead, long-term forecasts for Bitcoin in 2025 vary, with some analysts anticipating a trading range between $97,838 and $146,761 and an average price of $123,667. Others project even higher targets, with some suggesting Bitcoin could reach $200,000 by September 2025.
Ultimately, whether the Bitcoin bull run is truly over remains uncertain. The Wyckoff Distribution pattern presents a compelling bearish argument, while other analysts point to factors that could support a continued uptrend. Investors should closely monitor price action, macroeconomic developments, and regulatory updates to make informed decisions in this volatile market.
