Foreign affairs expert Robinder Sachdev has expressed serious concerns regarding the current situation in Bangladesh, terming it "absolutely alarming" for India, with potential advantages for Pakistan. Sachdev, known for his expertise in foreign policy and economic diplomacy, warns of rising anti-India sentiment in Bangladesh, a trend that could be exploited by external actors, particularly Pakistan, to foment tensions.
The concerns come amid a backdrop of political upheaval in Bangladesh. The ousting of Sheikh Hasina in August 2024 and the subsequent rise of an interim government led by a Nobel laureate have created a power vacuum, leading to increased instability. This transition has been marked by growing demands from various groups, economic challenges, and a lack of trust between the government and political parties. Some reports indicate a failure of the interim government to stabilize the country, leading to a decline in the economy, security, and democratic norms.
One of the most alarming aspects, according to Sachdev, is the rising anti-India sentiment within Bangladesh. This sentiment is palpable in the aftermath of the death of Osman Hadi, a politician known for his anti-India stance. Hadi's death triggered violent unrest across Bangladesh, with attacks targeting institutions perceived as pro-India. These attacks included the vandalization of media outlets and cultural organizations. The violence also displayed a strong anti-India undertone, with demands for the closure of the Indian High Commission.
Sachdev highlights the lynching of Dipu Chandra Das, a Hindu youth in Mymensingh, as a stark example of the growing dangers. He also points to the declining Hindu population in Bangladesh as a significant worry for India. These incidents raise concerns about the safety and security of minorities in Bangladesh and the potential for further deterioration of communal harmony.
The cooling of relations between India and Bangladesh since the change in regime is evident. While there is no indication that the interim government intends to reverse security cooperation, rising distrust and hostile rhetoric have strained the relationship. This is contrasted by a growing warmth in Dhaka's relations with Pakistan and China, further complicating the regional dynamics.
The situation in Bangladesh also carries implications for regional security. The worsening conflict in Myanmar is spilling over into Bangladesh, exacerbating border instability. Refugee camps are becoming targets for recruitment by armed groups, and there is a surge in drug smuggling and cross-border violence. The political vacuum has also emboldened militant groups and ethnic factions.
Given these factors, Sachdev warns that Pakistan could exploit the situation to its advantage. With rising anti-India sentiment and internal instability, Bangladesh could become more susceptible to Pakistani influence. This could have serious consequences for India's security and regional stability. Some reports suggest that foreign agencies, including Pakistan, could exploit the anti-India sentiment to create tensions.
India's Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) has acknowledged the sensitivity of the situation. The MEA has pushed back against reports of security threats to the Bangladesh High Commission in New Delhi, while also expressing concern over the killing of Dipu Chandra Das. India has also summoned Bangladesh's High Commissioner to protest against anti-India rhetoric and security issues.
As Bangladesh navigates its political and economic challenges, the situation remains precarious. The interim government faces the daunting task of managing dissent, reforming the political framework, and ensuring stability. The upcoming elections in February 2026 will be a critical juncture for the country. Whether Bangladesh can achieve stability and maintain positive relations with India remains to be seen.
