Ethereum (ETH) is exhibiting strong signals that point towards a potential surge to $4,000, fueled by technical indicators and accumulation by long-term holders. Several analysts have observed constructive patterns across short, mid, and long-term charts, suggesting a recovery and a possible move back to the $4,000 zone in 2026.
One key observation is Ethereum's recent reclaim of its 50-day moving average, a level near $3,000, for the first time since October 2025. This move, highlighted by analyst Ted, followed a rebound from December lows around $2,800, supported by rising green candles and increasing volume. Such a reclaim often indicates a transition from corrective phases to a continuation of an upward trend. The price is currently consolidating above the moving average, suggesting that buyers are actively defending this level. A sustained hold above $2,950 would strengthen the case for a push towards the next resistance band near $3,200.
Short-term charts also reveal promising signs. Analyst Gordon pointed out a compressed intraday structure on the one-hour Ethereum price chart. Ethereum has been trading beneath a descending trendline since peaking near $3,200 in December. Recent price action shows a bounce from the $2,900 zone, with ETH now testing that trendline. A successful break above this descending resistance could lead to a near-term target of $3,100.
Long-term holders are playing a crucial role in supporting this bullish outlook. BitMine, for example, has significantly increased its holdings, adding over 384,000 ETH in the last 30 days, bringing its total to 4.1 million ETH, worth $12.2 billion. This accumulation signals strong confidence in Ethereum's future. Addresses holding over 1,000 ETH now control 70% of the total supply, with these investors adding 120,000 ETH since December 26.
Technical indicators further support the potential for a price increase. Ethereum has remained above an ascending trendline since May, connecting the lowest price levels from June, November, and December. The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) indicator is nearing the zero line, and the Relative Strength Index (RSI) is rising above the neutral point, indicating increasing strength.
However, risks remain. A failure to hold above $2,950 would weaken momentum. Should Ethereum fall below the ascending trendline, it could confirm a bearish scenario, potentially leading to declines closer to $2,500.
Despite these risks, the convergence of positive technical signals, growing accumulation by major holders, and sustained weekly support keeps the $4,000 target within reach. Some analysts, like Tom Lee, predict even more ambitious targets, suggesting Ethereum could reach over $7,000 by 2026, especially as it becomes a key player in real-world asset tokenization. Another analyst forecasts a surge towards $5,700 amid institutional buying.
