China's planned cessation of subsidies for solar exports, expected to take full effect by early 2027, is poised to reshape the global solar market and presents significant opportunities for Indian solar firms. This policy shift by China, driven by concerns over profitability and domestic self-sufficiency, is projected to increase international solar product prices, thereby leveling the playing field for Indian manufacturers who have long competed against subsidized Chinese exports.

Impact and Opportunities for Indian Companies

The elimination of VAT export rebates for 249 goods, including solar cells, and the reduction of rebates for battery-related goods, is expected to make Chinese solar products more expensive. This creates a window of opportunity for Indian companies to expand their market share, both domestically and internationally. Several Indian firms are well-positioned to capitalize on this shift.

Key Beneficiaries

• Waaree Energies: With its substantial cell and module manufacturing capacities and existing export operations, Waaree Energies stands to gain significantly. The company imports solar cells from various countries and is expanding its local manufacturing units, positioning it to benefit from reduced input cost volatility and improved export competitiveness. Shares of Waaree Energies have already shown positive movement following the announcement.
• Premier Energies: Although currently more focused on the domestic market, Premier Energies is also expected to benefit from the normalization of global prices. The company can leverage this opportunity to expand its export business.
• Tata Power Solar: A long-standing and trusted name, Tata Power Solar manufactures durable and efficient solar panels suitable for various projects. Tata Power has commissioned record number of projects and continues to demonstrate commitment to renewable energy.
• Adani Solar: As a major player in India's solar manufacturing, Adani Solar offers high-efficiency solar PV modules and is known for its large-scale production capacity.
• Saatvik Green Energy: This company is expanding rapidly and is known for manufacturing high-quality solar PV modules.

Broader Industry Implications

Beyond these specific companies, the policy change has broader implications for the Indian solar industry:

• Level Playing Field: The removal of Chinese subsidies will create a more balanced competitive landscape, reducing the pressure from low-cost imports that has previously challenged domestic manufacturers.
• Increased Domestic Manufacturing: With reduced reliance on cheaper Chinese imports, the policy is expected to stimulate investment in domestic production, aligning with the Indian government's "Atmanirbhar Bharat" (self-reliant India) initiative. India's solar module production capacity nearly doubled between March 2024 and March 2025.
• Growth in Renewable Energy Sector: The Indian government is committed to installing 500 GW of non-fossil fuel capacity by 2030, with approximately 300 GW from solar energy. The increased competitiveness of domestic manufacturers will support this ambitious goal. India's solar capacity has seen rapid growth, reaching around 132.85 GW by November 2025.

Government Support and Initiatives

The Indian government has been actively promoting the growth of the domestic solar industry through various initiatives:

• Production Linked Incentive (PLI) Scheme: This scheme provides financial incentives to boost the manufacturing of high-efficiency solar modules.
• Basic Customs Duty (BCD): Imposed on imports from countries like China, the BCD aims to discourage dependence on low-cost imports and stimulate domestic production.
• National Solar Mission: A government initiative to promote solar power and increase solar power capacity.

Challenges and Considerations

Despite the promising outlook, Indian solar firms face certain challenges:

• Raw Material Dependence: Some companies still rely on imports for raw materials, particularly solar cells. Efforts to increase domestic cell manufacturing capacity are crucial.
• Trade Tensions: India's solar policies have faced scrutiny, with China initiating consultations with the World Trade Organization (WTO) regarding alleged violations of trade rules.

Conclusion

China's decision to phase out subsidies for solar exports presents a significant opportunity for Indian solar manufacturers. Companies like Waaree Energies and Premier Energies are well-positioned to benefit from increased global prices and a more level playing field. With continued government support and strategic investments in domestic manufacturing, India can strengthen its position as a global hub for solar energy.