The NHL Entry Draft is a crucial event for teams aiming to build a competitive roster, but the success rate of draft picks varies significantly depending on where they are selected. While a high draft pick increases the odds of a player making it to the NHL, it's no guarantee of a long and impactful career.

Overall Success Rates by Round

Historically, first-round picks have the highest success rate, with a significant percentage playing at least one NHL game. Data from the 1963 to 2023 NHL Entry Drafts shows that 88.8% of first-round picks (1262 out of 1420) have played at least one NHL game. However, the percentage drops considerably in later rounds. For example, looking at players drafted from 1998-2007, the average NHL player plays for 4.5 years. The top 25% of players play for an average of 12 years, while the bottom 75% play for an average of 2 years.

Here's a breakdown of the percentage of players from the first three rounds who have achieved certain milestones:

• First Round: 88.8% play 1+ NHL games, 70.2% play 100+ games, 54.5% play 300+ games, 42.9% play 500+ games, 25.2% play 750+ games, and 13.5% play 1000+ games.
• Third Round: 52.5% play 1+ NHL games, 28.2% play 100+ games, 16.9% play 300+ games, 11.0% play 500+ games, 5.0% play 750+ games, and 1.8% play 1000+ games.

Success Rates by Draft Position

Within the first round, the higher the pick, the greater the likelihood of a successful NHL career. For instance, a 1st overall pick has a very high chance of playing in the NHL.

• 1st Overall: 95.1% have played 1+ NHL Games.
• 2nd Overall: 93.4% have played 1+ NHL Games.
• 3rd Overall: 91.8% have played 1+ NHL Games.
• 11th Overall: 85.0% have played 1+ NHL Games.

As the numbers indicate, even a top-10 pick isn't a guarantee. Outside the first round, the odds diminish further.

Factors Influencing Success

Several factors can influence a draft pick's success:

• Scouting and Evaluation: The accuracy of scouting reports and player evaluation is critical. Teams that identify and draft players who outperform their draft position demonstrate a sustained edge.
• Player Development: A team's ability to develop young players is crucial. A supportive environment and quality coaching can significantly impact a prospect's growth.
• Opportunity: A player's path to the NHL depends on the opportunities they receive. Being drafted by a team with a clear path to the NHL increases a player's chances of success.
• Draft Biases: Teams may have biases that affect their drafting decisions. For example, high-scoring players tend to outperform their draft position, while taller players tend to underperform. Recognizing and overcoming these biases can improve a team's drafting efficiency.
• Luck: As with any prediction, luck plays a role. Injuries, unexpected player development, and team chemistry can all impact a draft pick's career.

Team Performance

Some teams have historically been more successful at drafting than others. For example, the Pittsburgh Penguins have a high average of Games Played and Points per first-round pick. Identifying the factors that contribute to these teams' success can provide valuable insights into effective drafting strategies.

The 2025 NHL Draft

The 2025 NHL Draft has recently concluded with Matthew Schaefer being selected first overall by the New York Islanders. Initial grades and analysis of each team's performance are available, highlighting potential steals and reaches. While it is too early to definitively assess the success of these picks, these evaluations provide a glimpse into the perceived value and potential of the drafted players.