Silver prices in China have surged, creating a significant premium compared to global rates. As of January 26, 2026, international silver prices are around $108.18 per ounce, but in China, the price has soared to as high as $125 per ounce. This roughly translates to silver being about 17% more expensive in China compared to India, where it costs approximately Rs 9,984 per ounce, while in China, it's around Rs 11,450.
Several factors contribute to this price divergence. A key driver is China's new silver export licensing policy, which came into effect on January 1, 2026. This policy restricts silver exports to a limited number of state-approved firms and is expected to remain in place until 2027. While some analysts view these regulations as an administrative adjustment, the market's response has been to push prices higher.
China's position as a major refiner and exporter of silver, accounting for an estimated 65% to 70% of global refined silver exports, makes its policy changes highly influential. The global silver market has already been facing a structural deficit for the past five years, with demand consistently exceeding supply. Cumulative shortfalls are estimated to be around 900 million ounces between 2021 and 2025. This existing imbalance is further aggravated by increasing industrial consumption.
Industries like photovoltaics, electric vehicles, AI infrastructure, and electronics manufacturing rely heavily on silver due to its high conductivity. The rising demand from these sectors puts additional pressure on silver availability.
The gap between silver prices in the United States and China has widened considerably in recent weeks. Silver is currently priced at around USD 94 per ounce in the US, while the equivalent price in Shanghai is roughly USD 104 per ounce after currency conversion. This difference of nearly USD 10 per ounce is a meaningful indicator of the different forces driving the two markets, reflecting fundamental differences in market structure, pricing mechanisms, and local supply and demand dynamics.
The trend of rising silver prices is not entirely new. Silver rose to $109.99 USD/t.oz on January 27, 2026, a 5.86% increase from the previous day. Over the past month, silver's price has increased by 52.45%, and it's up 261.90% compared to the same time last year.
The long-term outlook for silver remains bullish due to the structural deficit and sustained industrial demand, but volatility is expected to persist. Factors such as central bank buying and expectations of monetary easing also contribute to this outlook. The upcoming Lunar New Year holiday, beginning February 17, 2026, could also impact market activity and demand dynamics.
