Pakistan's potential boycott of the T20 World Cup 2026 match against India, scheduled for February 15 in Colombo, could lead to a series of adverse consequences for Pakistan, ranging from financial penalties and legal challenges to potential bans. The decision, reportedly made in solidarity with Bangladesh after their ouster from the tournament, has drawn criticism and raised concerns about the integrity of the competition. Here are five potential consequences Pakistan could face:

1. Forfeit and Points Deduction: According to ICC rules, if Pakistan does not take the field against India, the match will be treated as a forfeit. This would result in an automatic loss of two points for Pakistan, significantly impacting their chances of progressing further in the tournament. Clause 16.10.7 of the Playing Conditions specifies that in the event of a forfeit, the defaulting team's full quota of overs is counted against them, while the opposition's net run rate remains unaffected. This means India would get two free points and Pakistan would be penalized.

2. Net Run Rate Penalty: Beyond the loss of points, a boycott would also lead to a severe negative impact on Pakistan's net run rate (NRR). The ICC could impose a heavy NRR penalty, potentially equivalent to the assumption that the other team chased down a total of zero in zero balls. This could severely damage Pakistan's chances of advancing in the tournament, even if they win their other matches.

3. Financial Sanctions and Revenue Loss: The ICC could impose significant financial penalties on the Pakistan Cricket Board (PCB) for failing to honor its fixture obligations. Some reports suggest the ICC might withhold Pakistan's annual revenue share, potentially amounting to USD 38 million, from the current financial cycle of 2024-27. This cycle could reach approximately USD 144 million. The ICC could also deduct the losses incurred by broadcasters from PCB's revenue. An India-Pakistan match is a major revenue generator, with broadcasters potentially losing between INR 200-250 crore in advertising revenue if the match is scrapped. The financial implications could be particularly damaging, as the ICC might pass on legal claims and commercial losses directly to the PCB.

4. Potential Ban and Impact on Bilateral Series: The ICC might consider banning Pakistan from a future edition of the T20 World Cup or other ICC events. Leading cricketing nations might also refuse to play bilateral series with Pakistan, leading to international isolation. Moreover, overseas players could be restricted from participating in the Pakistan Super League (PSL), impacting the league's competitiveness and financial viability. Other ICC member boards might decline to tour Pakistan for bilateral series, and even if such series are played, the results might not count towards ICC rankings. Pakistan could also face the loss of World Test Championship (WTC) points.

5. Legal Challenges and Contractual Violations: By boycotting the match, the PCB could be in violation of a contract it co-signed with the ICC, which stipulates that India and Pakistan agree to participate in ICC events and play against each other at neutral venues. The PCB might attempt to invoke the "Force Majeure" clause, citing the government's instructions as "unforeseeable circumstances" preventing them from fulfilling their contractual obligations. However, the BCCI considers this a weak argument. The ICC could challenge this stance, potentially leading to legal battles and further sanctions.

Ultimately, Pakistan's decision to boycott the match against India carries significant risks, with potentially far-reaching consequences for its cricket board, players, and the sport in the country. The ICC has urged the PCB to consider the significant and long-term implications of their decision, emphasizing that it is not in the interest of the global game or the welfare of fans worldwide.