US Prediction of India Abandoning Russian Oil Faces Uncertainty as India Remains Silent.

In the wake of a recently announced trade deal between the United States and India, a claim made by U.S. President Donald Trump has stirred debate: that India has committed to cease importing Russian oil. While the U.S. has presented this as a key component of the agreement, India has refrained from offering any such confirmation, leading to a divergence in narratives.

According to Trump, India has "agreed to stop buying Russian oil and to purchase much more from the United States and, eventually, Venezuela". This statement was made alongside the announcement of reduced tariffs on Indian goods entering the U.S., decreasing from 50% to 18%. The U.S. views this arrangement as a strategic win, aligning with its broader efforts to isolate Russia economically. The executive order signed by President Trump links tariff relief to India's energy and defense commitments.

However, the Indian government has not explicitly endorsed Trump's claim. Instead, the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) has emphasized that India's primary concern is energy security for its 1.4 billion citizens. MEA spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal has stated that India's energy decisions are guided by national interest, with a strategy centered on diversifying energy sources in accordance with market conditions and evolving international dynamics. This position aligns with India's long-standing approach to importing Russian oil, which has continued despite concerns from the U.S. that revenue from these exports aids Russia's war in Ukraine.

India has historically maintained that its oil import policies are driven by the need to secure affordable and stable energy supplies for its consumers. Foreign Ministry spokesperson Randhir Jaiswal stated that India's decision to import Russian oil was "meant to ensure predictable and affordable energy costs to the Indian consumer". Amidst increasing pressure, Indian officials have previously criticized the "hypocrisy" of the U.S. and EU pressuring New Delhi to reduce Russian crude imports, highlighting that traditional suppliers had diverted resources to Europe following the conflict.

Despite the lack of official confirmation regarding a complete cessation of Russian oil imports, there are indications that India may be gradually reducing its reliance on Russian crude. While Russian oil accounted for a significant 22% of India's total imports in January 2026, this figure is lower than the 35-40% share seen earlier. Energy experts suggest that India's imports could decrease from an average of approximately 1.6 million barrels per day (bpd) in 2025 to around 500,000 bpd in the medium term.

Some reports suggest that Indian refiners are winding up their purchases from Russia after fulfilling existing orders. Major refiners like Hindustan Petroleum Corporation Ltd (HPCL), Mangalore Refinery and Petrochemicals Ltd (MRPL), and HPCL-Mittal Energy Ltd (HMEL) reportedly ceased purchasing from Russia following U.S. sanctions against Russian oil producers last year.

Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov has stated that Russia acknowledges India's freedom to source oil from various countries, noting that Russia is not India's sole supplier.

The discrepancy between the U.S. claim and India's stance highlights the complexities of international relations and energy security. While the U.S. may be seeking to leverage the trade deal to exert pressure on Russia, India's priority remains ensuring its energy needs are met through diversified sourcing and favorable market conditions.

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