Mumbai is bracing for a potential shift in its civic administration as exit polls predict a significant victory for the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP)-led Mahayuti alliance in the Brihanmumbai Municipal Corporation (BMC) elections. The polls, held on January 15, 2026, after a four-year delay, saw approximately 3.48 crore eligible voters casting their ballots to choose from 1,700 candidates vying for 227 seats in the BMC. The counting of votes is scheduled for January 16.
Several exit polls indicate a clear majority for the Mahayuti alliance, comprising the BJP and the Eknath Shinde-led Shiv Sena. According to the Axis My India exit poll, the alliance is projected to win between 131 and 151 seats. The JVC poll estimates around 138 seats for the Mahayuti, while Sakal projects a slightly lower but still comfortable majority of 119 seats. Democracy Times Network exit poll projects the BJP–Shiv Sena alliance is expected to win around 142 seats. Janmatpolls exit poll has projected a clear lead for the BJP–Shiv Sena alliance, indicating that the ruling combine is likely to retain control.
These projections suggest a major setback for the Shiv Sena (UBT), led by Uddhav Thackeray, despite his reunion with estranged cousin Raj Thackeray of the Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS). The JVC exit poll anticipates the Thackeray-led alliance securing only 59 wards. While the reunited Thackerays were expected to consolidate Marathi votes, and secure Maratha and Muslim votes, the exit poll data suggests that this strategy may not have yielded the desired results. Some analysts believe that the emotional appeal of Marathi pride and the Balasaheb legacy might not be enough to overcome the changing demographics and political landscape of Mumbai.
The BJP is projected to emerge as the single largest party, securing the largest share of votes. The Axis My India poll projects that the BJP+ alliance is predicted to win between 131 and 151 of the BMC's 227 seats. According to exit poll data, 44% of female voters favor the BJP-led Mahayuti. Among the 18–25 age group, 47% support the BJP. The BJP also seems to have strong support among North and South Indians.
Several factors contributed to the high-stakes nature of these elections. The Shiv Sena split in 2022 transformed the civic polls into a battle over legacy and legitimacy. For Uddhav Thackeray, these elections are seen as a fight for survival and an opportunity to reclaim Mumbai as his party's traditional stronghold. A victory for the Mahayuti alliance would cement Eknath Shinde's authority over the Shiv Sena and validate his rebellion. Furthermore, a BJP win would consolidate the party's control over India's financial capital.
The elections were not without controversy. The Mumbai Congress president alleged misuse of money and power by the ruling BJP-led alliance. There were also claims about easily removable ink and discrepancies in voter lists. The state election body reported a voter turnout of 41.13% till 3:30 pm. Despite these issues, Mumbai Police reported no poll-related incidents.
