Bitcoin holders have been selling off their holdings amidst tight macroeconomic conditions, sparking debate about whether the market has reached its bottom. Last week, long-term Bitcoin holders sold 245,000 BTC as the price dipped below $60,000. This marks the largest daily outflow since December 2024. However, Bitcoin is trading above $70,000 as traders attempt to stabilize the price.

Recent Market Activity

Bitcoin's price experienced a sharp sell-off recently, briefly falling below $60,000 and erasing nearly $10,000 in a single session. This volatility has put pressure on both short-term and long-term holders. Short-term holders appear to be reducing their exposure by offloading their holdings, while long-term holders, defined as addresses holding Bitcoin for more than 155 days, have also shown signs of distribution. Despite the selling activity, total long-term holder supply has increased from 13.63 million to 13.81 million BTC in 2026. This divergence suggests that some investors view the sell-off as a discounted buying opportunity.

Macroeconomic Factors and Market Sentiment

The recent market movements are influenced by macroeconomic factors. Bitcoin's price changes have been tightly correlated with early-stage tech equity market segments over the last 12 months. Bitcoin's Sharpe ratio has fallen to -10, its lowest since March 2023, which indicates a high risk-to-reward profile for traders, often seen in the final stages of bear markets.

Despite the recent downturn, analysts at Bernstein maintain a $150,000 price target for Bitcoin by the end of 2026, calling the current bear market the weakest on record.

Long-Term vs. Short-Term Holder Behavior

A key dynamic in the Bitcoin market is the distinction between short-term and long-term holders. Short-term holders are often more reactive to price volatility, while long-term holders tend to have a stronger conviction and are less likely to sell during downturns. Data indicates that short-term holders are reducing their exposure, while long-term holders remain largely inactive, suggesting continued conviction.

Potential Market Bottom

The question of whether the market has bottomed is still up for debate. Some analysts believe that the recent sell-off may represent a local bottom, pointing to potentially consistent market technicals. The long-term holder spent-output profit ratio (SOPR) has regained a position above 1, signaling a recovery after realized losses. Also, Bitcoin is trading above the overall realized price of $55,000, which may align with a base- or bottom-building phase.

Whale Activity

Bitcoin's supply remains concentrated among a relatively small group of large holders, and whale activity significantly impacts market sentiment and price behavior. Recent on-chain data shows that some whales are accumulating aggressively while others distribute, reflecting a bifurcated market structure.

Concluding Remarks

Bitcoin's market is currently navigating a complex landscape of macroeconomic pressures and shifting investor sentiment. The recent sell-off by long-term holders has raised concerns, but the increase in overall long-term holder supply suggests underlying confidence remains. Whether the market has reached its bottom is still uncertain, and monitoring whale activity alongside macro and technical indicators provides important context for understanding potential directional moves and liquidity pressures.