Bitcoin is showing signs of a potential rally to $138,000, fueled by historical market cycles and current weekly trends. The cryptocurrency reached an all-time high of $123,100 on Binance in the early hours of Monday.
Market Sentiment and On-Chain Data
On-chain data and market flows suggest that the current rally has the potential to continue, particularly as retail FOMO (fear of missing out) is largely absent. A key metric used to gauge market sentiment among short-term holders (STH) is the Net Asset Value (NAV) premium, which compares the market valuation of STH holdings to their average cost basis. The current NAV premium is at 16%, which falls within the "moderate" interest zone. This range indicates cautious optimism among short-term investors but remains significantly below the overheated 30–35% range that has historically signaled local tops driven by FOMO.
Glassnode has highlighted a 50% jump in Bitcoin spot volumes over the past week, indicating growing participation in the rally. However, these volumes are still 23% below the year-to-date average, suggesting that the broader market is not yet fully engaged.
Technical Analysis
Bitcoin recently closed its highest weekly candle ever at $119,310, marking a significant 8.74% gain since early May. This bullish momentum, coupled with historical market cycle patterns, supports the possibility of a further 15% increase to $138,000.
Spot Bitcoin ETF Inflows
Spot Bitcoin ETFs have entered a strong buy regime following the second-largest single-day inflow of $1.18 billion last week. This increased institutional interest further strengthens the bullish outlook for Bitcoin.
Overall Market Conditions
The current market capitalization of Bitcoin is $2,382,047,660,026, ranking it as the #1 cryptocurrency on CoinGecko. The fully diluted valuation (FDV) of Bitcoin is also $2,382,047,660,026. Bitcoin's price is calculated in real-time by aggregating data across 197 exchanges and 3271 markets, using a global volume-weighted average formula.
While various factors suggest a potential push towards $138,000, the cryptocurrency market remains volatile, and investors should exercise caution and conduct thorough research before making any investment decisions.
