Hyperliquid's native token, HYPE, is facing potential pressure due to an upcoming large-scale token unlock event. Maelstrom, the family office fund of BitMEX co-founder Arthur Hayes, has warned that HYPE could face its "first true test" starting November 29, 2025.
The core of the concern revolves around the vesting schedule for HYPE tokens, which will distribute $11.9 billion worth of tokens over 24 months to team members. This substantial release of tokens could create significant selling pressure in the market. Specifically, approximately $500 million worth of HYPE tokens are expected to enter the market each month.
Maelstrom estimates that current buybacks would only be able to absorb about 17% of this monthly supply. This leaves a potential overhang of approximately $410 million each month. Maelstrom researcher Lukas Ruppert suggests this poses a considerable risk to HYPE's price stability.
Adding to the narrative, Arthur Hayes recently sold his entire HYPE holdings. He reportedly made a profit of $823,000 from the sale, which he used as a deposit for a new Ferrari. Hayes had previously predicted that HYPE could increase 126-fold by 2028, but he acknowledged that the upcoming vesting phase could trigger volatility. Hayes justified his decision to sell by citing the unlocking pressure on HYPE.
The situation has prompted discussions about the potential actions of Hyperliquid developers once the vesting schedule commences. Maelstrom analysts pointed out the life-changing sums involved and the ease with which the tokens can be accessed.
Even the growing number of digital asset treasuries (DATs) are "just a drop in the bucket compared against impending HYPE unlocks," according to Ruppert. For example, Sonnet BioTherapeutics partnered with Rorschach to launch a HYPE treasury strategy with $583 million in HYPE tokens and over $305 million in cash. The $305 million in cash will also be used to acquire more HYPE tokens, which pales in comparison to the token's future unlocks.
Despite the looming unlocks and Hayes's recent sale, HYPE is still up over 660% since its launch. However, with increased competition among perpetual DEXs, Hyperliquid may be about to face its biggest test yet.
