The Russian Fertilizer Producers Association (RAFP) anticipates record fertilizer supplies to China and India in 2025, driven by increasing demand and a strategic realignment of trade flows. This forecast comes amid significant shifts in the global fertilizer market, influenced by Western sanctions and geopolitical factors.

In the first half of 2025, Russia has already increased its fertilizer exports to India by 20%, reaching 2.5 million tonnes. This surge elevates Russia's share in India's total fertilizer imports to a record 33%, meaning that one in every three tonnes of fertilizer imported by India now comes from Russia. The growth is mainly attributable to increased supplies of phosphorus-containing fertilizers, which are crucial for enhancing crop yields.

Andrey Guryev, head of the RAFP, noted that India has become the leading country in terms of the growth dynamics of Russian fertilizer supplies following the introduction of Western sanctions. He also highlighted Russia's role as a key global exporter of complex NPK fertilizers to India, with Russian producers holding an 89% share of India's NPK imports.

This partnership has helped India secure stable supplies and mitigate global price volatility, benefiting its farmers. Russian producers have exceeded expectations by supplying 1.5 million tonnes of fertilizers to Indian farmers between December 2024 and February 2025 alone, surpassing demand targets by 1.5 times.

Russia's fertilizer exports reached a historic high of 42 million tons in 2024, with 75% directed to non-sanctioned nations. The RAFP forecasts a 3% increase to 65 million tons in production in 2025, with a 5% export rise to 44 million tons. By 2030, production may reach 80 million tons, with 90% exported.

India has emerged as Russia's top market, with a 42% increase in complex and compound fertilizer shipments in 2025. Data from the Indian Ministry of Commerce and Industry indicates that Russia supplied 24.45% of India's fertilizer imports in 2024, up from a negligible share a decade ago. This shift aligns with India's agricultural needs as the nation seeks to sustain its Green Revolution-driven productivity.

However, India's 5% import duty on fertilizers remains a point of discussion. Some have suggested that removing this tariff would benefit Indian farmers by reducing costs and increasing access to high-performance, environmentally friendly fertilizers.

In addition to India, Russia is also focusing on increasing fertilizer shipments to African nations. Shipments to Africa have risen by 50% over the past three years, reaching 1.9 million tons in 2024, with South Africa accounting for nearly half of these volumes. This reflects Russia's focus on food security partnerships in the Global South.