The southwest monsoon has commenced its withdrawal from parts of western Rajasthan on September 14, 2025, according to the India Meteorological Department (IMD). This marks the start of the retreat three days earlier than the usual date of September 17.

Meteorological Conditions

The IMD has stated that the withdrawal is occurring due to specific meteorological conditions that have been met: * The development of an anti-cyclonic circulation over West Rajasthan, extending up to 1.5 km above mean sea level. * Absence of rainfall in the region for the past five days. * A reduction in atmospheric moisture content up to the mid-tropospheric level.

Withdrawal Line and Further Progression

As of September 14, 2025, the withdrawal line of the southwest monsoon passes through Sri Ganganagar, Nagaur, Jodhpur, and Barmer in Rajasthan. The IMD anticipates that conditions will remain favorable for the monsoon to withdraw from additional parts of Rajasthan, as well as some areas of Punjab and Gujarat, within the next 2-3 days.

Historical Context

If the monsoon's withdrawal from West Rajasthan started around September 15, it would be the earliest withdrawal since 2015, when it began on September 4. The year 2016 also saw the withdrawal begin on September 15. The usual date for the monsoon to begin retreating from northwest India is around September 17, with the complete withdrawal typically occurring by October 15.

Rainfall and Weather Forecasts

Despite the withdrawal from Rajasthan, the IMD has issued warnings for heavy to very heavy rainfall in various regions of India. These include Arunachal Pradesh, Assam, Meghalaya, Bihar, Konkan, Goa, and sub-Himalayan West Bengal and Sikkim. Heavy rainfall is also expected in Andaman and Nicobar Islands, Chhattisgarh, coastal Andhra Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh, Maharashtra, Nagaland, Manipur, Mizoram, Tripura, north interior Karnataka, Odisha, Telangana, and Uttarakhand.

The weather is expected to remain dry in most parts of western Rajasthan over the next week and in eastern Rajasthan for the next two to three days.

Monsoon's Significance

The southwest monsoon is critical for India, providing approximately 70% of the country's annual rainfall. It is particularly vital for the agriculture sector, which contributes significantly to India's GDP and supports a large portion of its population. The country has received 7% surplus rainfall in the monsoon season so far. The early withdrawal from Rajasthan does not signify the end of the monsoon season, which officially concludes on September 30.