Indian stock market indices, the Nifty 50 and the Sensex, are expected to open tepidly on October 3, 2025, following mixed cues from global markets.

Market Performance on October 1, 2025:

On Wednesday, October 1, the Indian stock market witnessed a sharp rebound, snapping an eight-day losing streak. The Nifty 50 index rallied by 225.20 points, or 0.92%, to close at 24,836.30. The BSE Sensex surged by 715.69 points, or 0.89%, to settle at 80,983.31.

Factors Influencing Market Sentiment:

• RBI's Monetary Policy: The Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) decision to hold the benchmark repo rate steady at 5.5% and announce market-friendly reforms boosted market sentiment.
• Global Market Trends: European markets closed higher, with the FTSE 100, DAX, and CAC 40 advancing, which may lift investor sentiment.
• FII/DII Activity: Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) offloaded equities worth ₹1,605 crore, while Domestic Institutional Investors (DIIs) bought equities worth ₹2,916 crore. Strong DII inflows are expected to cushion market moves.
• Technical Analysis: Nifty's daily chart shows the formation of a long bull candle, indicating a short-term bottom reversal with supports in the 24,600 to 24,700 range and resistance at 25,000.

Nifty 50 Outlook:

• Analysts suggest that the short-term trend of Nifty has reversed upwards with the formation of a near-term bottom reversal pattern.
• Immediate resistance for Nifty is expected at 25,000, followed by 25,200. Immediate support is placed at 24,600.
• A long bull candle has formed on the daily chart, signaling a short-term reversal. Nifty 50 has bounced back sharply from the crucial support of around 24,500 - 24,400 levels.
• Near-term support and resistance are at 24633/24507 and 25039/25165.

Sensex Outlook:

• Immediate resistance for Sensex is at 82,000 – 82,200. A convincing move above this zone could propel the index higher. On the downside, support lies at 80,000 – 79,800. A break below this zone could test the next support level at 79,500.
• Near-term support and resistance are at 80284/79852 and 81682/82115.

Bank Nifty Outlook:

• The Nifty Bank index closed above 55,000, driven by buying in Kotak Mahindra Bank, Axis Bank, ICICI Bank, and HDFC Bank.
• The Bank Nifty has demonstrated notable strength and the formation of a bullish Marubozu candle signals a strong positive start to the month. The near-term trend looks constructive, with the next resistance seen at 55,800–56,000. Immediate support now shifts higher to 55,800 and the 100-day moving average at 55,881.

Other Key Factors:

• Global Cues: Investors are awaiting non-farm payroll data and Fed balance sheet data from the US, and PPI and HCOB Services PMI data from the Euro Area.
• Domestic Data: Investors will be monitoring foreign exchange reserves.
• Volatility: India VIX, the fear gauge index, slipped 7.02% to 10.29.

Overall Market Sentiment:

Market sentiment is expected to be positive, supported by an accommodative monetary policy, a favorable monsoon season, and a festive-led boost in demand. However, mixed cues from global markets may lead to a tepid start.