India became a net importer of finished steel in September, with imports exceeding exports, according to provisional government data. This shift indicates a change in the country's steel trade dynamics.
Key Data Points:
- Imports: India's finished steel imports in September totaled 0.65 million metric tons.
- Production: The country's finished steel production saw an increase of 14.7%, reaching 13.3 million metric tons.
- Consumption: Steel consumption also rose, climbing 9% to 13.5 million metric tons.
- Year-on-Year Comparison: The import figure represents a 36.3% decrease year-on-year.
August Overview:
In August, finished steel exports rose 54% to 0.53 million tonnes, while imports declined 31% to 0.67 million tonnes, making India a net importer by 0.14 million tonnes for the month.
Broader Trends (April-August):
- Imports dropped 33% to 2.5 million tonnes.
- Exports advanced 16% to 2.2 million tonnes.
- India was a net importer by 0.3 million tonnes.
- Crude steel output stood at 68.3 million tonnes (up 12%).
- Finished steel production was at 65 million tonnes (up 10%).
- Consumption reached 66 million tonnes (up 8%).
Factors Influencing the Market:
Market participants have pointed to several factors influencing the steel market, including aggressive supplies from China, weak demand in Europe, and the availability of surplus, low-priced steel from West Asia.
Expert Opinion
Industry sources anticipate that consumption will gain momentum after the monsoon season, from late September onward.
H1 FY 2024-25
India was a net importer of steel in the first half of fiscal year 2024-25, with imports up 41% and exports down 36%. There is pressure from imports, especially from China and South Korea. However, on a month-on-month basis, the rate of growth of imports is manageable. There has been substantial improvement in exports sequentially and some firming up of prices in China is being seen, which is a positive if it plays out in the long run. In September, finished steel imports totaled around 1 million mt, up 78 percent compared to the corresponding month of the previous year, but almost the same as in August 2024. Exports in September were recorded at 0.4 million mt, up 16 percent over August, but eight percent lower than in September 2023.
Demand Growth
India is considered a major driver for domestic steel demand growth with an expected 8.2% rise in steel demand in both 2024 and 2025, while for China, the SRO predicts a zero growth in 2024, followed by a 1% contraction in 2025 compared with the previous year.
Global Forecast
The World Steel Association forecasts a 1.7% growth in steel demand in 2024 and a further 1.2% growth in 2025. India remains a bright spot in the global steel industry and the steel demand in the country is expected to show a healthy growth of 8% in 2024 compared to a decline of 0.9% globally.
