Global carbon emissions from fossil fuels are projected to reach a record high in 2025, according to the latest research from the Global Carbon Project. The 2025 Global Carbon Budget projects 38.1 billion tonnes of fossil carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions this year, marking a 1.1% increase from 2024. This rise underscores the continuing challenge of decoupling global energy demand from fossil fuel consumption, despite progress in many countries in decarbonizing their energy systems.
While the global picture reveals a concerning trend, the report highlights a shift in regional emissions patterns. Emissions in China and India are projected to grow much less in 2025 compared to the past decade. This is largely attributed to the significant growth in renewable power generation in these countries. In contrast, emissions in the US and EU are projected to increase this year after years of decline.
China, a frontrunner in clean energy growth, has demonstrated impressive progress in its energy transition. In the first half of 2025, China met all its demand growth with clean electricity generation, leading to a fall in its fossil fuel generation and emissions. China accounted for 55% of the global rise in solar generation and 82% of the rise in wind generation. However, it remains unclear when fossil fuels will peak in China, partly because weather can play a significant role in year-to-year variations in demand and generation.
India's growth in clean sources was more than three times bigger than demand growth, with record solar and wind installations pushing coal generation and emissions down. Fewer heatwaves also contributed to lower electricity demand. The IEA reports that renewable energy in India cuts over 250 million tonnes of CO₂ emissions each year. This makes India a major player in global emission reductions, second only to China.
Despite the progress in renewable energy deployment in China and India, the increase in global emissions highlights the need for a more rapid and widespread transition away from fossil fuels. The report estimates that the remaining carbon budget to limit global warming to 1.5°C is virtually exhausted. With no sign of the urgently needed decline of global emissions, the level of CO2 in the atmosphere and the dangerous impacts of global warming continue to increase.
The report also examined the impact of climate change on the land and ocean carbon sinks. It finds that 8% of the rise in atmospheric CO2 concentration since 1960 is due to climate change weakening the land and ocean sinks. The scientists said the combined effects of global heating and the felling of trees have turned tropical forests in southeast Asia and large parts of South America from overall CO 2 sinks into sources of the climate-heating gas.
The Global Carbon Project is an international research collaboration that provides an overview of the global carbon budget, including both natural and human-induced emissions and sinks. The project integrates knowledge of greenhouse gases for human activities and the Earth system.
