In the wake of escalating tensions between India and Pakistan following a deadly militant attack in Pahalgam, the question arises: can the two nuclear-armed neighbors find a way to de-escalate and prevent further conflict?

The recent crisis was triggered by a terrorist attack in Pahalgam, Indian-administered Kashmir, which resulted in the death of 26 tourists on April 22. India responded by launching "Operation Sindoor," targeting nine sites in Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Jammu and Kashmir, alleging they were used for planning the attacks. This action led to a military confrontation, with both sides exchanging fire across the Line of Control (LoC) and downgrading diplomatic ties.

Both India and Pakistan have signaled that they may not want to escalate the situation further. According to analysts, both countries have extensive experience in managing each other's expectations and levels of violence. Indian Foreign Secretary Vikram Misri stated that India's actions were "measured, non-escalatory, proportionate, and responsible," seemingly to reassure Pakistan.

However, the situation remains precarious. Pakistan claimed it downed five Indian aircraft, while media reports suggest two French-made fighter jets were likely downed. India has not confirmed any losses. Artillery bombardments by Pakistan have reportedly killed 15 civilians and injured 43 since Tuesday night.

Several factors could contribute to a potential off-ramp.

• International Pressure: The United States and China have called for de-escalation, with Beijing advocating for an independent investigation into the attack. Qatar and Spain have also reached out to both countries, urging a resolution to the crisis. Germany, along with the European Union, has urged India and Pakistan to de-escalate, with German Chancellor Friedrich Merz emphasizing the need to "keep a cool head". The UK government is also urging both countries to show restraint and engage in direct dialogue.
• Economic Considerations: A full-scale war would harm Pakistan's efforts to attract foreign investment, given its economic precarity. Prioritizing trade and economic partnership could improve the complex internal economic circumstances of both states.
• Experience in Managing Escalation: Analysts note that India and Pakistan have significant experience handling escalation with each other. This suggests they possess the mechanisms and understanding to prevent the situation from spiraling out of control.
• Desire for Regional Stability: Both India and Pakistan have a huge interest in regional stability, in dialogue, and in de-escalation.

Despite these factors, significant obstacles remain.

• Lack of Trust: A survey in 2022 indicated that over 60 percent of Indians and half of Pakistanis believe the two countries cannot have friendly relations this decade.
• Kashmir Dispute: The long-standing dispute over Jammu and Kashmir remains a major source of tension. India's decision in 2019 to revoke Article 370, which provided semi-autonomy to Jammu and Kashmir, further strained relations.
• Terrorism: India continues to accuse Pakistan of supporting terrorist groups, while Pakistan denies any involvement.
• Suspension of Treaties: India's suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty and Pakistan's threat to walk away from the Simla Agreement further complicate the situation.

Several countries have offered assistance to de-escalate the situation. Donald Trump expressed his desire to help, while the UK stated its readiness to support both countries in moving towards dialogue. However, some experts believe that the United States has taken a neutral stance.

Ultimately, whether India and Pakistan take the off-ramp depends on their willingness to prioritize de-escalation and engage in meaningful dialogue. While both countries have incentives to avoid a full-scale war, overcoming the existing obstacles will require strong leadership, a commitment to peaceful resolution, and potentially, the involvement of effective third-party mediators.