For over two decades, Pakistan's nuclear arsenal has been perceived as an impenetrable shield, granting it a sense of impunity while allegedly supporting terrorism. However, recent events suggest that this perception is being challenged. India's strategic responses, from the surgical strikes in 2016 to the Balakot airstrikes in 2019 and, most recently, Operation Sindoor, indicate a willingness to call Pakistan's "nuclear bluff". This shift is not merely about military capabilities; it represents a psychological shift, signaling that proxy wars will now carry a significant cost.
Following a deadly terror attack in Jammu and Kashmir that killed 26 people, mostly Indian tourists, tensions between India and Pakistan have escalated, raising concerns about a potential nuclear conflict. In response to the attack, India launched airstrikes on nine sites in Pakistan and Pakistan-Occupied Jammu and Kashmir, claiming they were militant staging grounds. Pakistan, however, stated that the strikes hit civilian areas and issued a warning of further action unless Indian operations ceased. The international community has reacted with concern, with world leaders backing a ceasefire and calling for sustained peace.
India's strategy appears to be focused on punishing Pakistan for its alleged support of terrorism while staying below the nuclear threshold. This approach is exemplified by the "Cold Start" doctrine, which aims to inflict significant damage on Pakistan without triggering a nuclear war. In contrast, Pakistan has no "No First Use" policy and maintains the right to strike first. Despite similar numbers of nuclear warheads, India has about 172, while Pakistan possesses roughly 170, their nuclear doctrines diverge.
Recent reports suggest that India's military actions, particularly the strike on Noor Khan Airbase, have sent a strong message to Pakistan. By targeting a facility close to the capital and the military's nerve center, India demonstrated its ability to disrupt Pakistan's National Command Authority (NCA), the body responsible for overseeing the country's nuclear arsenal. This strike was not merely a tactical operation but a carefully calibrated strategic message, underscoring India's ability to retaliate with precision and overwhelming force, even against Pakistan's most sensitive military sites.
The situation remains tense, with Pakistan reportedly moving troops to forward areas and considering the tactical use of nuclear weapons. However, experts suggest that this may be a familiar tactic by Islamabad to escalate the conflict, invite international concern, and then use that pressure to secure a ceasefire and declare victory. Despite these challenges, India has shown a new resolve in its approach to Pakistan, signaling that it will no longer be deterred by nuclear threats. This new approach is a reflection of India's willingness to prioritize its safety and sovereignty, even if it means taking risks.
As tensions ease with a US-brokered ceasefire, the international community remains cautious, recognizing that the underlying issues of cross-border terrorism and regional instability persist. While Operation Sindoor is considered a strong deterrent, experts warn that it cannot fully eliminate terrorism, as it is an ideology that is difficult to root out. The path to sustained peace requires continued dialogue, diplomacy, and a commitment from both sides to address the root causes of conflict.
