The recent ceasefire between India and Pakistan, brokered on May 10, 2025, has brought a temporary halt to a dangerous escalation that threatened to engulf the region in a full-blown war. However, the underlying tensions remain, and the path forward is fraught with challenges. The question now is whether this ceasefire marks a genuine turning point or merely a pause before another, potentially more devastating, confrontation.
The immediate trigger for the conflict was the April 22, 2025, attack near Pahalgam in Indian-administered Kashmir, which resulted in the deaths of 26 civilians, mostly tourists. India swiftly blamed Pakistan for supporting the militants responsible, a charge Islamabad denied. This attack ignited a series of escalatory measures, including India launching Operation Sindoor on May 7, 2025, a wave of missile strikes into Pakistan and Pakistan-administered Kashmir, targeting what it claimed were terrorist infrastructure. Pakistan retaliated with "Operation Bunyan al-Marsus," targeting Indian military installations. These exchanges marked a significant departure from previous conflicts, with direct missile strikes targeting sites inside both territories and the use of advanced missile systems and drones by both sides.
The ceasefire, while welcome, was met with immediate accusations of violations from both sides. Explosions were reported in Srinagar and Jammu shortly after the agreement was announced, and both India and Pakistan blamed each other for initiating the breaches. Despite these initial setbacks, the ceasefire has largely held, with reports suggesting that "serious violations" have ceased and that the situation has stabilized in many cities along the Line of Control (LoC).
Several factors contributed to the de-escalation. The United States, under President Trump, claimed to have played a key role in mediating the ceasefire, with other countries also understood to have been involved in the talks. However, some in India viewed the U.S. intervention as undermining India's policy of handling the dispute bilaterally. Beyond the immediate crisis, the underlying issues that have fueled the conflict for decades remain unresolved. The Kashmir dispute, cross-border terrorism, and a deep-seated lack of trust continue to plague relations between the two countries.
Prime Minister Narendra Modi has declared a "new normal" in India's relationship with Pakistan, signaling a willingness to use force to neutralize terrorist camps across the border. This stance suggests a more assertive approach and a potential shift in India's strategic calculus. However, it also raises concerns about the risk of further escalation in the future. The recent crisis has also highlighted the multi-domain nature of the conflict, extending beyond conventional military exchanges to include cyber and information warfare. This expansion adds another layer of complexity and increases the potential for miscalculation.
Several punitive measures implemented by both countries before the ceasefire remain in place. India suspended the Indus Waters Treaty, halted most visas, and stopped all trade, while Pakistan responded with similar measures, including a trade ban and the closure of its airspace to Indian flights. These measures underscore the deep freeze in bilateral relations and the lack of any meaningful dialogue.
Looking ahead, the path to lasting peace between India and Pakistan remains uncertain. The ceasefire provides an opportunity for both sides to step back from the brink and engage in meaningful dialogue. However, any progress will require addressing the underlying issues, building trust, and establishing clear red lines to prevent future escalations. The international community also has a role to play in facilitating dialogue and promoting stability in the region. Whether the current ceasefire will hold, or whether it will be followed by another round of conflict, remains to be seen. The stakes are high, and the need for a peaceful resolution is more urgent than ever.
