The withdrawal of US troops from Afghanistan, particularly under the Trump administration, has left India feeling betrayed and facing a significantly altered geopolitical landscape. While Trump touted the end of a long-standing conflict as a victory, India's leaders view the situation with considerable unease, fearing the repercussions for regional stability and their own strategic interests.
India had invested heavily in Afghanistan, both economically and diplomatically, with the aim of fostering a stable, democratic, and prosperous nation. This investment included significant development aid, infrastructure projects like the Afghan Parliament building, and support for the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF). India's primary objective was to curtail Pakistan's influence and prevent Afghanistan from becoming a haven for anti-India terrorist groups. The presence of US and NATO forces provided a security umbrella, enabling India to pursue its interests and contribute to Afghanistan's development.
However, the US withdrawal, particularly the manner in which it was executed, undermined India's efforts. The hasty departure created a power vacuum, which the Taliban swiftly filled, leading to the collapse of the Afghan government. This outcome directly contradicts India's vision for Afghanistan and raises serious concerns about regional security.
Several factors contribute to India's sense of betrayal. Firstly, the US decision to negotiate directly with the Taliban, sidelining the Afghan government and regional partners like India, signaled a shift in priorities. Despite reported assurances from Trump to Prime Minister Modi that India "need not worry," the deal struck between the US and the Taliban was perceived by many Indian experts as one-sided, leaving Afghanistan vulnerable.
Secondly, the resurgence of the Taliban poses a direct threat to India's security interests. The Taliban's links to terrorist groups like Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammad, which have historically targeted India, raise the specter of increased cross-border terrorism. India is particularly concerned about the potential for these groups to find safe haven in Afghanistan and use it as a launchpad for attacks against Indian targets.
Thirdly, the US withdrawal has emboldened Pakistan, which has long supported the Taliban. With the US gone, Pakistan's influence in Afghanistan is likely to increase, potentially undermining India's strategic interests in the region. The close ties between the Taliban and Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) are a major source of concern for Indian policymakers.
In response to the evolving situation, India has been forced to recalibrate its Afghan policy. Recognizing the need to engage with the new reality, India has cautiously initiated diplomatic contacts with the Taliban, a significant departure from its previous stance of non-engagement. This shift reflects a pragmatic assessment of the situation and a recognition that India must protect its interests in a Taliban-controlled Afghanistan.
Furthermore, India is likely to focus on strengthening its counter-terrorism capabilities, enhancing intelligence gathering, and working with other regional powers to contain the spread of terrorism. Supporting the Afghan people through humanitarian assistance and development projects will also remain a priority.
While the US may see the withdrawal from Afghanistan as the end of a conflict, India views it as a new chapter fraught with challenges and uncertainties. The sense of betrayal stems from the perceived abandonment of a long-standing partner and the undermining of India's strategic interests in the region. As India navigates this new landscape, it will need to adopt a multi-faceted approach that combines diplomacy, security measures, and development assistance to safeguard its interests and promote regional stability.
