The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has revised its monsoon forecast for 2025, predicting that the country is likely to receive 106% of the Long Period Average (LPA) rainfall during the June to September season. This is an increase from the earlier estimate of 105% issued in April and falls under the "above normal" category. The LPA is calculated based on the average rainfall recorded over several decades and is a key benchmark for assessing monsoon performance.
The updated forecast brings good news for Indian agriculture, which is heavily reliant on the monsoon rains. The monsoon delivers approximately 70% of India's annual rainfall and is crucial for crop sowing, overall agricultural productivity, and the livelihoods of millions of farmers. An above-normal monsoon is expected to boost the Kharif cropping season, which is critical for the production of rice, pulses, and other essential crops.
Regionally, the IMD anticipates variations in rainfall distribution across the country. Central India and the southern Peninsular region are projected to receive above-normal rainfall. Northwest India is likely to experience normal rainfall, falling within the range of 92% to 108% of the LPA. However, Northeast India may receive below-normal rainfall, with estimates indicating less than 94% of the LPA. The Monsoon Core Zone (MCZ), a vital area for rain-fed agriculture, is also expected to receive above-normal rainfall, further enhancing the prospects for a productive Kharif season.
The IMD's monthly outlook for June 2025 suggests a strong start to the monsoon season. Rainfall across the country during June is expected to be above normal, exceeding 108% of the LPA. Most regions are likely to experience normal to above-normal rainfall during the month. However, some southern parts of the Peninsular region, as well as pockets of Northwest and Northeast India, may record below-normal rainfall.
While the forecast indicates a promising monsoon season overall, the IMD has cautioned about potential risks associated with above-normal rainfall. These include the possibility of flooding, disruptions to transportation, public health concerns, and harm to ecosystems. The department has emphasized the need for effective disaster management and preparedness measures to mitigate these risks.
The early arrival of the monsoon has been attributed to several climatic factors, including high moisture levels in the Arabian Sea and Bay of Bengal, intensified Somali Jet winds, favorable Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) phases, and neutral El Nino conditions. The IMD utilizes sophisticated forecasting models that incorporate simulations from global climate models to provide accurate and timely monsoon predictions.
The IMD will continue monitoring monsoon trends and issue regular updates to aid planning in agriculture, water resource management, and disaster preparedness. These updates are crucial for farmers, policymakers, and other stakeholders to make informed decisions and take appropriate actions to maximize the benefits of the monsoon while minimizing potential risks.
